Naira's Mixed Signals: Dollar Strengthens as Interest Rate Cut Expectations Rise"



The naira displayed mixed signals against the dollar in Nigerian FX markets on Thursday, as the greenback rose from seven-month lows amid bargain hunting and expectations of interest rate cuts. The naira gained roughly N50, settling at N1,543/$1 on Wednesday, up from N1,592/$1 on Tuesday, according to data from the NAFEM market.

However, the domestic currency lost the N1,600/$ support line in the black market, trading at N1,610/$1 late Wednesday, compared to N1,605/$1 on Tuesday. Market indicators confirm that despite improved macroeconomic conditions in the Nigerian FX market, the local currency is struggling to maintain the crucial N1,500 support level and is under significant strain this month.

Fundamentals suggest that the local currency may move towards N1,800/$1 if it cannot sustain its current levels. At this point, even staunch proponents of free market economics will be skeptical that the naira will reach its March highs this quarter

Cash Crisis: Banks Ration Cash, ATMs Dispense Little, Customers Groan




The cash crisis in Nigeria has taken a toll on bank customers, who are struggling to access their money. Despite the presence of Automated Teller Machines (ATMs), customers are finding it difficult to withdraw cash, as banks continue to ration cash and ATMs dispense little.

The situation has led to frustration among customers, who are forced to rely on alternative means such as Point of Sale (PoS) operators, who charge exorbitant fees. The cash crunch has also led to a decrease in economic activities, as businesses struggle to access cash to operate.

Experts have attributed the cash crisis to several factors, including the high cost of running ATMs, the acquisition and merging of major banks, and the shift to digital banking. However, the situation remains a challenge for customers, who are calling on banks to address the issue.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has initiated measures to promote a cashless economy, but the progress has been slow. The government needs to accelerate efforts to harness the benefits of a cashless society, enhance economic growth, and reduce financial risks.

EFCC to Probe Banking Chiefs Over Fraud

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has announced plans to investigate and prosecute top banking executives for their alleged roles in facilitating financial crimes in Nigeria. This move has been met with mixed reactions from stakeholders, with some hailing it as a necessary step to curb corruption and others expressing concerns about the potential impact on the banking sector.

According to the EFCC Chairman, Olanipekun Olukoyede, the commission has compiled evidence and is ready to begin prosecutions. He stated that the banking sector has been identified as a major conduit for corruption and that top officials will be held accountable.

The EFCC's move is seen as a response to the growing concern over financial crimes in Nigeria, which has led to significant economic losses and undermined public trust in the banking system. However, some experts have raised concerns about the potential impact on the banking sector, citing the need for careful handling to avoid destabilizing the financial system.

While the EFCC's plan to probe banking chiefs is a welcome move, it is crucial to ensure that the investigation is thorough, transparent, and fair. The banking sector plays a critical role in the economy, and any actions taken must be carefully considered to avoid unintended consequences.

As the EFCC prepares to take action, it is essential to remember that the fight against corruption requires a collaborative effort from all stakeholders, including the government, regulatory agencies, and the private sector. Only through a collective commitment to transparency and accountability can Nigeria hope to tackle the scourge of corruption and promote economic growth and development.

amilies Struggle to Cope as Cost of Hiring House Helps Soars Amidst Inflation"

The soaring inflation and rising cost of living in Nigeria have impacted various sectors of the economy, and the domestic help industry is no exception. Many Nigerian families are being forced to reassess their reliance on maids due to the escalating expenses associated with their services. Amid this economic turmoil, the once-affordable service of hiring a housemaid has now become a luxury for many.

For families like that of Monica Etugbo, a mother of six, the burden of hiring domestic help has become overwhelming. "I need help, especially when all the children are not around," she explains, highlighting her need for assistance in managing household chores. "But with the way the economy is now, you're not able to take good care of yourself and you want to take out from the little you have, to pay somebody else? You have to manage."

Monica recounts a time when paying N10,000 to N15,000 for a maid was sufficient. However, today the cost has surged to as high as N40,000 to N50,000 per month. This increase, nearly a 300% rise, mirrors the broader inflationary trends affecting the country. Essentials like food items have seen a similar rise; for instance, Monica notes that the price of garri has jumped from N2,000 to N5,000 per paint bucket—a stark 150% increase.

She reflects on the toll this has taken on retirees and those with fixed incomes, explaining how hard it has become for people to even contemplate employing domestic help

Lagosians Feel the Heat as Fuel Prices Soar: Turning Off ACs and Turning to Public Transport"

As fuel prices continue to skyrocket in Lagos, residents are being forced to adopt new strategies to manage the increasing costs of commuting. With petrol prices now exceeding N850 per litre at NNPC stations and as high as N1,100 at other retail outlets, many are turning off their car air conditioning to save on fuel consumption. Others are exploring more fuel-efficient modes of transportation, such as public transport, to navigate the financial burden of soaring fuel costs.

The fuel price hike has led to a surge in transportation costs, with many residents seeing their expenses skyrocket. For Oluwatosin, a Lagos resident who regularly drives from the Mainland to the Island, the soaring price of petrol has made even small comforts like using his car's AC an unaffordable luxury. "The truth is, no matter your income, the fuel hike hits everyone's pocket hard," he explained. "Fuel prices affect everything—food, transportation, and daily commodities. Personally, my expenses have skyrocketed, cutting deep into my income and savings."

As fuel prices continue to climb, Lagosians are adopting a variety of strategies to manage the financial strain. While many residents are turning to public transport as a more affordable option, others are employing different tactics such as turning off their car's air conditioning, cutting down on unnecessary trips, and exploring more fuel-efficient vehicles to mitigate rising expenses

Nigeria's Economy Feels the Pinch as Oil Prices Drop to Lowest Level Since 2021

The recent drop in crude oil prices to below $70 per barrel for the first time since December 2021 has raised concerns about the impact on Nigeria's economy and the naira. The global benchmark, Brent crude, fell by 2.8% due to strong supply, demand concerns, and speculative selling. This decline in oil prices is expected to put additional pressure on the naira, which has already weakened to nearly N1,600/$ in recent weeks.
The drop in oil prices also presents a challenge for the federal government, which had set a benchmark crude oil price of $77 per barrel in the 2024 budget. Furthermore, crude oil production in Nigeria has not met the set production benchmark, and the country has been unable to meet OPEC's set quota for crude oil production

Nigerians Lament as Fuel Price Hike Crisis Continues: Dangote Accused of Manipulation



Nigerians are groaning under the weight of an unresolved crisis between the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPCL) and Dangote Refinery, which has led to a fuel price hike that shows no signs of abating. The crisis has sparked intense debate and concern among stakeholders, with many calling for urgent action to resolve the impasse.
Aliko Dangote has been accused of playing high-wired politics with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the Federal Government over fuel price fixing. A presidential aide claimed that the Dangote Refinery is running away from pricing to avoid looking bad to Nigerians.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, noted that the refinery is the sole determinant of pricing and cannot sell fuel below its cost price. This has led to accusations that Dangote is manipulating fuel prices for political gain.
NNPCL has clarified that it is not the sole off-taker for petroleum products across Nigeria, contrary to claims by MURIC. However, the statement has done little to alleviate the concerns of Nigerians, who are struggling to cope with the rising cost of fuel.

Tinubu Orders Emergency Meeting, Direct NNPCL to Reduce Fuel Price

President Bola Tinubu has directed the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to take immediate action to address the current fuel price hike in the country. The President's directive comes as fuel prices have soared to as high as N855 per liter in some parts of the country, causing widespread hardship and discomfort for Nigerians.

The NNPCL has been ordered to work with oil marketers to reduce the price of fuel and ensure that it is available to Nigerians at an affordable price. The President's directive is aimed at alleviating the suffering of Nigerians and ensuring that the economy is not further strained by the fuel price hike.

The NNPCL has assured the President that it will work tirelessly to ensure that the fuel price is reduced and that the product is available to Nigerians at an affordable price. The company has also assured that it will work with oil marketers to ensure that the fuel price is stabilized and that Nigerians are not further exploited.
The President's directive is a welcome relief to Nigerians who have been bearing the brunt of the fuel price hike. Many Nigerians have expressed their gratitude to the President for his prompt action in addressing the fuel price hike

Commuters Stranded as Petrol Price Skyrockets to N1000 Per Litre Amid Scarcity"

Commuters were left stranded yesterday as filling stations hiked the price of petrol to N1000 per litre, amidst a severe scarcity of the product. The sudden price increase caused widespread chaos and confusion, with many motorists queuing for hours to buy fuel.

The price hike was attributed to the federal government's clandestine increase in the pump price of premium motor spirit (PMS), which was done without prior notice to the public. The government's action was widely criticized by Nigerians, who expressed their outrage and frustration on social media.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) also condemned the government's action, describing it as a "betrayal" of the trust of Nigerian workers. The NLC president, Comrade Joe Ajaero, accused the government of being consistent in its betrayal of the people and demanded an immediate reversal of the fuel price hike.

Nigeria  Cracks Down on Price Gouging: Traders Given One Month to Reduce Prices"

The Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) has given traders and market stakeholders a one-month ultimatum to reduce the prices of goods and services. The Commission's Executive Vice Chairman, Tunji Bello, made this announcement during a stakeholders' engagement on exploitative pricing in Abuja. Bello noted that the Commission would begin enforcement actions once the moratorium period ends.

The FCCPC has identified instances of price gouging, including a fruit blender priced at $89 in the US but sold for N944,999 in Lagos. Bello emphasized that such practices threaten the economy's stability and urged stakeholders to cooperate with the Commission. The National Association of Nigerian Traders attributed the price surge to charges on imported goods at ports and requested a task force to include their association in enforcement efforts. The FCCPC acknowledged the market stakeholders' concerns and encouraged self-reflection on the issue.

SEC Grants Legal Status to Quidax and Busha as Crypto Exchanges in Nigeria



The Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has granted Approval-in-Principle to Quidax and Busha, recognizing them as legally authorized crypto trading platforms in the country. This move is a significant step towards regulating the cryptocurrency market in Nigeria.

The two exchanges were approved under the Accelerated Regulatory Incubation Program (ARIP) of the Commission. Additionally, four other companies have been admitted to test their models and technology under the Regulatory Incubation (RI) Program. These companies are Trovotech Ltd, Wrapped CBDC Ltd, Dream City Capital, and (link unavailable) Ltd.

The SEC emphasized that only approved digital exchanges and platforms are legally authorized to carry out crypto trading in Nigeria. The Commission warned the public to refrain from dealing with illegal operators and advised investors to confirm the legitimacy of entities providing investment services.

This development is a positive step towards regulating the cryptocurrency market in Nigeria, which is expected to hit $52.5 million in 2028. The SEC's move is seen as a response to the growing demand for cryptocurrency trading in the country, despite the initial negative posture of the Nigerian authorities.

Nigeria's telecommunications sector, once a booming industry, has experienced a steady decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate over the past year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the sector's real GDP growth has dropped from 11.71% in Q1 2023 to 5.17% in Q2 2024. This significant decline is attributed to a challenging operating environment characterized by inflation and currency depreciation.

The forex debacle has taken a toll on telecom operators, with heavy losses reported due to the dwindling value of the Naira. For instance, MTN, with a subscriber base of 79.7 million as of December 2023, reported a first loss after tax of N137 billion since its 2019 listing on the Nigerian Stock Exchange in 2023. Airtel Africa, which had 50.9 million subscribers in Nigeria as of March 2024, reported a loss after tax of $89 million for its full year ended March 2024, primarily due to FX headwinds in Nigeria and Malawi.

Industry stakeholders have sounded the alarm, urging the government to address the perennial challenges in the telecom sector. "Telecommunications is the engine room of the digital economy. A steady decline in the GDP growth rate of the sector for more than a year is a clear indication that things are not going the right way," said Akin Naphtal, Founder/CEO of Africa Digital Economy Forum (ADEF).

The current economic landscape in Nigeria is bleak, with small business owners struggling to stay afloat amidst skyrocketing inflation and low patronage. The situation is dire, with many entrepreneurs on the verge of closing their businesses due to the harsh economic realities.
"I've never seen it this bad," says Mrs. Nkiru, owner of a boutique in Ago Okota, Lagos. "A gown that used to sell for N5,000 now goes for N15,000. People are prioritizing food and basic necessities over fashion. I'm barely making ends meet." Mrs. Nkiru's experience is not an isolated one. Many small business owners in Nigeria are facing similar challenges, with prices of goods and services increasing exponentially, and customers reducing their spending.
The cost of living has gone up, and people are prioritizing basic necessities over discretionary purchases. "A mop that was N900 last year now costs N1,800," says Mrs. Mariam, a domestic appliance retailer. "People are hesitant to buy new items, preferring to make do with what they have." The situation is further compounded by the increasing cost of rent and materials, which is squeezing profit margins for businesses.
Provision store owner Mrs. Okoye is also feeling the pinch. "A small pack of noodles that was N5,000 last year now costs N7,677. Rent has also increased, making it difficult for businesses to thrive." The experiences of these small business owners paint a grim picture of Nigeria's current economic landscape. As they struggle to stay afloat, experts warn that the resilience of Nigeria's small business sector is being tested like never before.

The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) has issued a $500 million domestic dollar bond, which opened for subscription on August 19, 2024. The bond has a 9.75% per annum interest rate and will mature in 2029. The auction will remain open until August 30, 2024, allowing investors to participate in this offering.
The bond is structured as a five-year investment with semi-annual coupon payments. Investors can purchase units at a minimum of $1,000 each, with an initial minimum subscription set at $10,000 (10 units). The redemption of the bond will occur through a bullet repayment at the end of the five-year term.
This bond issuance is part of Nigeria's financial strategy, providing an opportunity for investors both within and outside the country. The bond is open to a wide range of investors, including Nigerian residents, individuals with savings abroad, members of the Nigerian diaspora, and Qualified Institutional Investors.
The bond qualifies as a security under several legal frameworks, including the Trustee Investment Act and the Pension Reform Act, allowing trustees and Pension Fund Administrators to invest in it. Additionally, it qualifies as a government security under the Company Income Tax Act (CITA) and the Personal Income Tax Act (PITA), offering tax exemption benefits for pension funds.

Nigeria's four national refineries, even at full capacity, can only produce about 20 million liters of petrol daily, which is only enough to meet 50% of the country's daily demand, according to energy expert Daniel Kunle. This means that the country's refineries are not capable of making Nigeria energy sufficient, even when they are all working.

Kunle, a former technical adviser to the Minister of Petroleum Resources, made this statement during an interview on Channels Television's "Politics Today". He noted that the four government refineries, located in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna, have a combined production capacity of 20 million liters of petrol per day, which is less than half of the country's daily demand of 40 million liters.

"This is a serious challenge for Nigeria, as it means that we are not able to produce enough petrol to meet our own needs, let alone export any surplus," Kunle said. "We are forced to rely on imported petrol, which is expensive and can be unpredictable in terms of supply."

Kunle praised the Dangote refinery, which is currently under construction, as a significant achievement that will help to address Nigeria's energy needs. "The Dangote refinery is a game-changer for Nigeria," he said. "It has the capacity to produce 50 million liters of petrol per day, which is more than enough to meet our daily demand. This will help to reduce our reliance on imported petrol and make our energy supply more secure."

However, Kunle noted that the Dangote refinery is not a silver bullet for Nigeria's energy challenges. "We still need to address the issues with our existing refineries, which are not functioning at optimal levels," he said. "We also need to invest in new infrastructure, such as pipelines and storage facilities, to support our energy sector."

The Nigerian government on Thursday said it has commenced both diplomatic and legal steps to recover the three presidential aircraft seized in France on account of indebtedness.
The diplomatic and legal means are being currently explored by the Office of the National Security Adviser, NSA, and the Office of the Attorney General of the Federation, AGF, and Minister of Justice.
A statement by the AGF on Thursday in Abuja maintained that the debt which led to the seizure of the presidential aircraft was incurred by the Ogun State Government in a contractual agreement with a Chinese company.
Parts of the statement read: “On 14th August 2024, the Federal Government of Nigeria became aware of the interim attachment of three presidential aircrafts undergoing routine maintenance in France.
“The said temporary attachment was made pursuant to ex-parte orders issued by the Judicial Court of Paris dated 7 March 2024 and 12 August 2024 respectively

Guinness Nigeria PLC emerged as the highest bidder, purchasing $15.8 million at a bid rate of N1,540/$1. This move is seen as a strategic step by the company to manage its foreign loan obligations and ensure the continued growth and expansion of its operations in Nigeria.

Churchgate Investments Ltd purchased the smallest bid amount of $146,000 at a bid rate of N1,520/$1. Despite being the smallest bidder, the company's participation in the auction demonstrates its commitment to meeting its foreign loan obligations and maintaining its business operations in Nigeria.

The CBN sold $876.26 million at N1,495/$1 to 26 qualified banks in the auction. A total bid of $1.18 billion was received from 32 dealer banks, but bids from six banks were disqualified. This move by the CBN is part of its strategy to reduce demand pressure in the foreign exchange market and promote price discovery.

The auction also aimed to ensure that companies in Nigeria have access to the foreign exchange they need to repay their loans and conduct their business operations. By providing this access, the CBN hopes to promote economic growth and development in Nigeria

Fitch Downgrades Union Bank of Nigeria to 'Junk' Status"

Fitch Ratings has downgraded Union Bank of Nigeria PLC's Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) to 'CCC' from 'B-', citing a prolonged breach of the bank's total capital adequacy ratio (CAR) requirement of 10% and uncertainties regarding the timeline for restoring compliance.

The downgrade reflects concerns about the bank's viability and ability to meet its regulatory capital requirements. Fitch estimates that Union Bank of Nigeria has breached its CAR requirement due to a significant increase in its regulatory risk reserve, which is deducted from capital for the purpose of capital adequacy computations.

The bank's near-term prospects will depend on continued sound internal capital generation and a timely execution of the recapitalization plan agreed upon by new management with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Fitch noted that progress is being made in reconstituting the board and the bank continues to operate as a going-concern

The prices of tomatoes and peppers have surged to a staggering N60,000 per basket, marking a significant increase as protests in the region begin to subside. This development has left many consumers reeling, as the cost of these essential commodities continues to rise.

The protests, which had previously disrupted supply chains and led to a shortage of these goods, have started to dissipate, allowing for a slight increase in availability. However, the damage to the supply chain and the resulting price hike have already been done, leaving consumers to bear the brunt of the increased costs

CBN Approves Landmark Merger: ProvidusBank and Unity Bank 

The Central Bank of Nigeria has approved the merger between ProvidusBank and Unity Bank, creating a leading financial institution with a robust retail banking network, innovative digital solutions, and a strong focus on customer service. The combined entity will offer an expanded suite of products and services, greater convenience, and improved access to banking solutions across various channels.

Sentiment Report For this week; NGXASI Sees Mixed Sentiment

The NGXASI saw a mixed sentiment this week, with 43% of stocks recording buy sentiments and 57% recording sell sentiments. The volume index stood at 1.39, while the MFI (Money Flow Index) was at 78.52D.
In a surprising turn of events, Academy topped the gainers' chart with a 100% buy sentiment, followed closely by Accorp with a 53% buy sentiment. Cutix and CWG also saw significant buy sentiments, with 70% each. Fidelity rounded out the top gainers with a 100% buy sentiment.
On the other hand, Cileasing saw a mere 8% buy sentiment, making it the biggest loser of the week. CHH and Daar also saw significant sell sentiments, with 15% and 33% respectively. Jagold and UPDC rounded out the bottom five with 25% and 10% buy sentiments respectively.
In other news, Zenith Bank announced a N290bn fresh capital raise through a public offer and right issue on July 29, 2024. This move is expected to boost the bank's capital base and support its growth plans.
However, not all banks fared well this week. Sterling Bank and Stanbic IBTC Holdings faced significant challenges as their share prices plummeted.

The naira surged to N1,570/$1 on the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) window on Thursday, marking an increase of 2.47% from the previous day's rate of N1,608.73/$1. This is the highest one-day increase since July 22, 2024, when the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) decided to resume selling foreign exchange (FX) to authorized dealers.

The local currency has closed below the N1,600 ceiling, which it crossed about a week ago. However, it is gradually recovering from the significant loss recorded last week, snapping a six-day losing streak on Wednesday when it appreciated by 0.77%.

Despite the gain, FX turnover appears to be unstable. While it rose by 62.81% on Wednesday to $270.81 million, it crashed on Thursday, August 1, 2024. Nigeria's FX turnover fell by 47.45% to $142.32 million, likely suggesting either low trading activity or a low supply of dollars on the official market.

The CBN has been trying to boost liquidity in the FX market by selling foreign exchange to authorized dealers. Last week, it sold a cumulative amount of $148 million to 29 authorized dealers. The foreign exchange was sold at exchange rates ranging between N1,470.00/$1 and N1,510.00/$1.

The naira's gain is a positive development for the Nigerian economy, which has been facing challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors. However, the unstable FX turnover suggests that there may still be challenges ahead.

The Nigerian naira plummeted to a four-month low of N1,611 against the US dollar on Monday, July 29, 2024, according to official data from the FMDQ. This marks a 7% depreciation in July, the worst monthly drop since February.

The naira's decline reversed last week's gains, despite the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) efforts to stabilize the exchange rate by selling forex to traders. Market turnover recorded $179.34 million, with total turnover for July reaching $3.7 billion.

Analysts attribute the depreciation to increased demand pressure from importers and autonomous sources, including retail and investor demand. The CBN has attempted to boost liquidity in the FX market by selling $148 million to forex traders, but the naira continues to struggle.

The exchange rate has now depreciated by 77.6% this year, with Nigeria's external reserves remaining around $36.5 billion as of July 26, 2024. The federal government plans to issue $500 million in domestic foreign currency-denominated bonds in the coming weeks.

*Fuel Scarcity Hits Abuja and Lagos: NNPC Cites 'Hitch' in Vessel Discharge Operations*

The Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) Limited has attributed the ongoing petrol scarcity in Lagos and Abuja to a technical hitch in the discharge operations of vessels delivering petrol to filling stations in these regions.

According to NNPC spokesperson Olufemi Soneye, the hitch disrupted normal operations, leading to the current fuel shortage. However, the company is working with stakeholders to resolve the issues and restore normalcy.

The fuel scarcity has led to the closure of filling stations in Abuja, Lagos, Niger, Nasarawa, and Kogi states, causing concerns among oil marketers and consumers. Despite the removal of fuel subsidies, Nigeria continues to experience periodic fuel scarcity, undermining expectations of a stable fuel supply.

This is the third instance of fuel scarcity in 2024, highlighting the persistent volatility in the country's fuel market. The recurrent issue has caused significant inconvenience to consumers and raised concerns about the underlying factors contributing to these disruptions.

Today's Edition is on how High Interest Rates Force Nigerian Corporates to Shun Capital Market



The Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) aggressive interest rate hikes have led to a surge in borrowing costs, prompting Nigerian corporates to retreat from the capital market. The CBN raised the monetary policy rate by 750 basis points to 26.25% between January and May 2024, significantly impacting the cost of capital for businesses and the government.

As a result, companies have adopted a cautious stance towards participating in the capital market, leading to a decline in new listings of commercial papers and corporate bonds. Data from the FMDQ revealed a 22.6% drop in new listings of commercial papers and a 97.6% plummet in new listings of corporate bonds in the first five months of 2024.

The high-interest environment has made it difficult for companies to service their debts, leading to a rise in non-performing loans (NPLs) and tighter lending criteria for banks. The manufacturing and telecommunications sectors, critical to Nigeria's economy, have been severely impacted, with increased costs of production and operational challenges.

Experts suggest that the government should explore alternative measures to combat inflation that do not disproportionately affect the cost of borrowing. Targeted support for affected sectors and fiscal policies aimed at boosting production and supply-side interventions could help alleviate the situation.

The future outlook remains uncertain, with companies needing to navigate the high-interest environment carefully. Until interest rates decrease, it is unlikely that there will be a substantial increase in new listings of commercial papers and corporate bonds.

Today's edition is on the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The apex vank has recently rolled out a series of measures aimed at tightening its grip on the country's banking sector. The directives, which target dormant accounts, unclaimed funds, intervention funds, and development finance interventions, have left industry experts and bank officials reeling.

At the heart of the CBN's directives is the requirement for banks to transfer dormant accounts and unclaimed balances to the central bank. This move is expected to have far-reaching consequences, particularly for older generation banks with a large number of dormant accounts.

Analysts has predicted a stable exchange rate for the Nigerian naira by year-end 2024, with projections indicating a range of N1,423.26/$ to N1,550/$. This optimistic forecast is driven by several positive economic developments, including the commencement of local petrol supply from the Dangote refinery and sustained tight monetary policy measures.

According to the analysts' report, "Balancing Act: Nigeria's Path to Economic Stability," key factors contributing to the projected stability include:

- Reduction of trade deficit in refined liquids
- Narrowing of negative interest rate differential
- Slowdown in headline inflation
- World Bank's $750 million disbursement to temporarily boost reserves and forex supply
- Continued increase in dollar supply, enhancing forex liquidity
These factors collectively suggest a stable outlook for the naira by the end of 2024."

The naira appreciated by 0.04% to ₦1,576.66 per US dollar on Tuesday, boosted by additional foreign currency inflows of $321 million into Nigeria's external reserves. The influx lifted the reserves balance to $35.696 billion, easing FX pressure in the autonomous foreign exchange market.

The Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) intervention sales of $122.671 million to 46 authorized dealers also contributed to the FX liquidity, supporting the naira's recovery at the official window. However, the parallel market saw a slight depreciation, with the naira losing N5 to close at ₦1,550 per dollar.

The Nigerian naira appreciated slightly against the US dollar at the official foreign exchange market on Tuesday, according to data from FMDQ. The naira gained 0.63% to close at N1,576.66 per dollar, up from N1,577.29 on Monday.

However, the naira's gain was offset by a significant depreciation at the black market, where it lost N25 to trade at N1,585 per dollar, down from N1,560 on Monday. Bureau De Change operators attributed the decline to a drop in foreign currency transaction turnover, which fell to $138.17 million on Tuesday from $155.53 million the previous day.

This reworked version of the headline and news story aims to provide a clearer and more concise summary of the naira's performance at both the official and black markets, highlighting the contrast between the marginal gain at the official market and the significant depreciation at the black market.

Some financial analysts have sounded the alarm on Nigeria's economic outlook, warning that the government's increasing reliance on debt instruments without corresponding revenue-generating investments could lead to a fiscal crisis. In its latest report, PwC notes that the imbalance between government spending and revenue will likely persist in 2024, jeopardizing fiscal sustainability. The report highlights the detrimental effects of recent economic reforms, including rapid naira devaluation, rising interest rates, and surging inflation, which have combined to create adverse shocks for businesses and households. PwC cautions against further tax increases, suggesting that such measures would only exacerbate existing difficulties. Instead, the consulting firm recommends that the government reevaluate its taxation policies, prioritize macroeconomic stability, and drive fiscal prudence by optimizing spending on capital projects with the highest ROI. Additionally, PwC suggests implementing financial intervention schemes and social safety net programs to mitigate the impact of economic reforms. The report projects a marginal reduction in inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024, stabilizing at around 29.5%, and a 2.9% GDP expansion in the second half of the year. However, PwC warns that growth potential could be restrained by lingering economic pressures. Overall, the report emphasizes the need for a structured and focused policy approach, policy flexibility, and mitigation of policy impacts to navigate the challenges ahead.

The BusinessNG 

September 13, 2024

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The BusinessNG, a leading business news publication across Nigeria and WestAfrica With a strong team of 30 staff members and a weekly print circulation of over 10,000 copies, we are poised for growth and report all  political relating to  business news at all level

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The Business NG - August 23, 2024

The Business NG - August 23, 2024

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