The future of South Africa’s socio-economically important livestock production sector should not be left to chance. This is why, according to the director of the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy and associate professor at the University of Pretoria, Ferdi Meyer, an analysis of historic and current trends in national and international livestock value chains is vital for generating informed estimations of what the future may hold.
South Africa’s livestock industry generates billions of rand in both local and foreign income for the economy every year, and creates many thousands of jobs. It is therefore crucial that it continues to adapt and grow. However, this requires careful planning from livestock producers, and having helpful information at hand is critical.
Prof Ferdi Meyer, director of the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), explains that the BFAP Baseline Agricultural Outlook is published annually and provides a forecast of the sector for the next decade. It provides primarily market-related projections for 48 agricultural industries in South Africa, and aims to assist livestock and other farmers with their forward planning,
BFAP has found that since 2000, South Africa’s real agricultural GDP has shown mostly an upward trend, despite a number of shocks, including last year’s avian influenza and listeria, high grain stocks, and ongoing drought (see graph). However, the extent of the growth of the country’s real agricultural GDP to 2027 is expected to be under pressure. This is largely the result of relatively low global agricultural prices, in combination with the continued slow growth of South Africa’s economy, which will, in turn, place consumers under financial strain. They will therefore have less money to spend on agricultural products.
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