MOTIVATION AND METHOD
The European Union’s objective is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80 % by 2050 compared with 1990 levels. Moreover, some member states such as Germany have committed themselves in their climate protection plan to reduce greenhouse gases emissions by 95 % over the same period. Against this background, a working group of the Research Association for Internal Combustion Engines (FVV) has analysed in a comprehensive peer study different energy paths suitable for achieving climate-neutral road transport by the year 2050 along with the economic costs associated with the various paths.
Therefore, a technology-neutral approach has deliberately been chosen that takes into account three possible combinations of energy carriers and powertrain systems, 1:
:: Direct usage in battery electric vehicles (cars or overhead-line trucks) powered by renewable electricity;
:: Fuel cell electric vehicles powered by hydrogen; and
:: Internal combustion engine vehicles powered by e-fuels, also known as Power-to-X (PtX) fuels.
In order to compare the economic implications of each energy path, the method used in the study consciously employs 100 % scenarios. This does not mean that a 100 % change over to a single path appears realistic or desirable, but simply serves the purpose of better modelling. Due to the methodological approach chosen, the use of biomass-based fuels was intentionally excluded. Even though these alternative fuels can help to reduce CO2 emissions from the transportation sector in the future, a complete substitution of fossil fuels with biofuels is far from realistic. The starting point for all the energy paths considered is a complete conversion of the electricity sector to renewable energy. An earlier FVV study has already shown that this is possible even if the demand for electricity increases significantly as a result of additional demand from the transportation sector [1].
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