Why Are Economists So Bad At Predicting Recessions?
Bloomberg Businessweek|April 1, 2019 - Double Issue

Professional forecasters feel safer in a crowd. There’s not much incentive to stick one’s neck out.

Cristina Lindblad and David Rocks
Why Are Economists So Bad At Predicting Recessions?

In 1966, four years before securing the Nobel Prize for economics, Paul Samuelson quipped that declines in U.S. stock prices had correctly predicted nine of the last five American recessions. His profession would kill for such accuracy.

With recession talk returning to haunt financial markets and the corridors of central banks, a review of the past suggests that those who are paid to call turning points in economic growth have a dismal record. Unlike the stock market, they’re more likely to miss recessions than to predict ones that never occur. The lowlight, of course, was the widespread failure to forecast America’s Great Recession, which began in December 2007—nine months before Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy.

In February, Andrew Bridgen, chief economist at London-based Fathom Consulting, worked out that of 469 downturns since 1988, the International Monetary Fund had predicted only four by the spring of the preceding year (page 32). By the spring of the year in which the downturn occurred, the IMF was projecting 111 slumps, fewer than a quarter of those that actually happened. In a post on his firm’s website, Bridgen wrote that while IMF economists monitoring Equatorial Guinea, Papua New Guinea, and Nauru can walk tall for their recession calls, the rest pretty much flopped. “Since 1988 the IMF has never forecast a developed economy recession with a lead of anything more than a few months,” he says.

This story is from the {{IssueName}} edition of {{MagazineName}}.

Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.

This story is from the {{IssueName}} edition of {{MagazineName}}.

Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.

MORE STORIES FROM BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEKView all
Instagram's Founders Say It's Time for a New Social App
Bloomberg Businessweek US

Instagram's Founders Say It's Time for a New Social App

The rise of AI and the fall of Twitter could create opportunities for upstarts

time-read
4 mins  |
March 13, 2023
Running in Circles
Bloomberg Businessweek US

Running in Circles

A subscription running shoe program aims to fight footwear waste

time-read
3 mins  |
March 20 - 27, 2023
What I Learned Working at a Hawaiien Mega-Resort
Bloomberg Businessweek US

What I Learned Working at a Hawaiien Mega-Resort

Nine wild secrets from the staff at Turtle Bay, who have to manage everyone from haughty honeymooners to go-go-dancing golfers.

time-read
10 mins  |
March 20 - 27, 2023
How Noma Will Blossom In Kyoto
Bloomberg Businessweek US

How Noma Will Blossom In Kyoto

The best restaurant in the world just began its second pop-up in Japan. Here's what's cooking

time-read
3 mins  |
March 20 - 27, 2023
The Last-Mover Problem
Bloomberg Businessweek US

The Last-Mover Problem

A startup called Sennder is trying to bring an extremely tech-resistant industry into the age of apps

time-read
10+ mins  |
March 20 - 27, 2023
Tick Tock, TikTok
Bloomberg Businessweek US

Tick Tock, TikTok

The US thinks the Chinese-owned social media app is a major national security risk. TikTok is running out of ways to avoid a ban

time-read
10+ mins  |
March 20 - 27, 2023
Cleaner Clothing Dye, Made From Bacteria
Bloomberg Businessweek US

Cleaner Clothing Dye, Made From Bacteria

A UK company produces colors with less water than conventional methods and no toxic chemicals

time-read
3 mins  |
March 20 - 27, 2023
Pumping Heat in Hamburg
Bloomberg Businessweek US

Pumping Heat in Hamburg

The German port city plans to store hot water underground and bring it up to heat homes in the winter

time-read
3 mins  |
March 20 - 27, 2023
Sustainability: Calamari's Climate Edge
Bloomberg Businessweek US

Sustainability: Calamari's Climate Edge

Squid's ability to flourish in warmer waters makes it fitting for a diet for the changing environment

time-read
4 mins  |
March 20 - 27, 2023
New Money, New Problems
Bloomberg Businessweek US

New Money, New Problems

In Naples, an influx of wealthy is displacing out-of-towners lower-income workers

time-read
4 mins  |
March 20 - 27, 2023