Seated in the iconic BSE building, 81-year-old K.R. Choksey says he has never seen a fall like this in his 59 years as an investor. Not even during the tech bubble or 9/11. This beats even the 2008 global financial crisis. What makes it different is that finance and health (crises) have come at the same time, says the founder of KRChoksey Investment Managers. The coronavirus pandemic coupled with an economic slowdown could have a devastating impact all over the world, and India is no exception. Most stock markets are seeing steep falls and investors are looking to minimise the red on their books.
In India, the BSE Sensex has bungee-jumped 35.7 per cent, hitting lower circuit a number of times from the beginning of January to three weeks into March. Its market cap fell from a high of Rs 77.7 lakh crore on January 17 to about Rs 50 lakh crore on March 23. Though it recovered marginally to Rs 56.78 lakh crore on March 27, setbacks may occur every now and then.
In 2008, during the subprime crisis, it took the Nifty a full calendar year to drop by 50 per cent. In 2020, it took just 11 weeks for the index to crash 40 per cent. The 21-day nation-wide lockdown will have an impact on GDP growth and weaken investor sentiment further. According to a Barclays research statement - which factors in four weeks of complete shutdown, followed by another eight weeks of partial shutdowns until the end of May - its new forecast for CY2020 GDP growth in India is 2.5 per cent from 4.5 per cent earlier, and 3.5 per cent for FY21 from 5.2 per cent earlier.
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