Food inflation plays a central role in headline inflation, but is also an important metric to track in terms of access to sufficient and sufficiently nutritious food for households. The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy’s (BFAP) ‘Baseline Agricultural Outlook 2020 to 2029’ explores current and possible future trends in food inflation and their potential impact on household food security from an affordability perspective.
TRENDS IN FOOD INFLATION
For the past couple of years, BFAP has included a food inflation forecast in its baseline report that is in line with the statistical properties of the inflationary series in question (be it food inflation or one of its sub-categories). This has been done with relative confidence, as most inflationary series exhibit a degree of inertia that can be drawn on to forecast trends. This inertia is predominantly supported by demand-side trends that drive the longer-term trajectory of the series. Supply-side issues also play a role, but manifest more as shorter-term shocks away from longer-term demand-side trends.
As the country emerges from the strict COVID- 19 lockdown measures, however, it is unclear how these supply and demand dynamics will show up in metrics such as food inflation. In terms of demand, South African consumers have been under pressure from before the lockdown period, thus the restrictions intensified the economic pressures already evident from early 2019. The supply side, in turn, also experienced unprecedented shocks, such as a significant depreciation of the rand-US dollar exchange rate.
This story is from the {{IssueName}} edition of {{MagazineName}}.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber ? Sign In
This story is from the {{IssueName}} edition of {{MagazineName}}.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber? Sign In
Review: the Toyota Hilux 2.8GD-6 DC 4×4 GR-Sport III
The third iteration of the Hilux GR-Sport has finally achieved a sense of presence and style befitting its raceinspired branding. But is this the ultimate modern Hilux? Car Magazine takes a closer look.
Why maize prices soar in Kenya and Malawi but not Tanzania
Namhla Landani, an economist at the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of Johannesburg, and Arthur Khomotso Mahuma, economist and researcher at the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of Johannesburg, analyse the issue.
Wet carcass syndrome: a scourge in SA sheep farming
Wet carcass syndrome continues to take a huge financial toll on South African sheep farmers. Octavia Avesca Spandiel spoke to two experts about the ongoing genetic research aimed at addressing this issue.
Pollination innovation
Bee-Tech Group is transforming South African agriculture with pollination technologies that boost crop yields and enhance sustainability. Founder Michiel Bruggeman spoke to Octavia Avesca Spandiel.
The valuable addition that makes this farm tick
Owning the value chain provides farmers with far more control over their produce. However, it requires a fine balance between production and ensuring there is a strong and steady market. Lindi Botha visited Rosemary Hill to find out how this essential oil producer leverages hospitality to make the farm viable.
The benefits of recirculating aquaculture systems
A powerful set of attributes has established recirculating aquaculture systems as a cornerstone of global temperate fish farming, writes Leslie Ter Morshuizen, owner of Aquaculture Solutions.
Minister has big plans for emerging and commercial farmers
DA leader and Minister of Agriculture John Steenhuisen spoke to Glenneis Kriel about his priorities for his department over the next five years, including an increased focus on biosecurity.
New study aims to make wheat more disease resistant
A recent international study explains how bread wheat has helped to transform the ancient world on its path to becoming the iconic crop that today helps sustain a global population of eight billion.
Conservation farming and biodiversity boost soil health and sustainability
A recent academic event focused on research into the links between soil biodiversity, soil health and sustainable agriculture
What has led to the unparalleled rice shortage in Japan?
Japan is facing a rice shortage amid concerns about a potential 'megaquake', several typhoons and an annual week-long holiday, which has led to an increase in panic buying.