The Greek philosopher Heraclitus, who lived in the first century BCE, was quoted as saying: “Change is the only constant in life.” Normally, people react to change by expecting it to end soon, whereafter things will return to normal. Disruptive change, however, happens when an event or chain of events require a fundamental and permanent change of existing business models.
Climate change and global warming are exactly such a disruptive force; they have a profound and permanent effect on livestock farming globally. Extreme weather events, failure to respond to climate change, and biodiversity loss are now rated amongst the greatest dangers to the health of life and humanity on the planet.
There is sufficient scientific evidence that climate change and global warming have changed the production environment and production base of livestock farming in Southern Africa dramatically over the past two decades, which can be described as having a potentially disruptive effect on livestock production and food security. The more marked changes include a 1°C increase in average temperature per annum (compared with 0,65°C globally), more erratic and extreme rainfall as the wet periods become wetter and dry periods last longer and become drier, and an unprecedented increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2)in the atmosphere. The effects of these are:
• Livestock have to endure increased heat stress;
• Increased rainwater run-off with increased soil erosion;
• Longer and more intense climatic droughts; and
• Unchecked bush encroachment, decreasing the productivity and health of both savannas and grasslands.
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