That the rise of electric vehicles will have an impact on the demand for metals is undoubted. But not all will be affected equally.
The view of investment banks on the likely impact of electric vehicles (EVs) is just a question of degree. EVs talk so sensibly to society’s broad concerns – as contained in the Paris Agreement on climate change, for instance – that demand for the metals required for their fabrication is likely to be anything from robust to stratospheric.
A report by JP Morgan Cazenove suggests the market could use a cold shower, especially regarding the impact EVs will have on lithium and cobalt demand – relatively scarce minerals that go into the manufacture of the all-important batteries used in EVs.
“We temper exuberance for lithium and cobalt prices, but are more optimistic on the outlook for copper and nickel, with copper demand forecast to grow by 845 000 tonnes a year by 2025, offsetting structural decline in Chinese demand,” the bank’s analysts said in June.
“We forecast rapid growth of EVs, but wide regional dispersion tempers metals demand impact,” they said.
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