Sprouts of recovery

Company analysts expect the FTSE/JSE All Share Index to gain substantially over the next year at current valuations. It’s time to start looking for the blossoms, albeit cautiously.

- Schalk Louw

Spring has finally arrived, and we’re getting closer to the time of the year when most people’s minds start leaning towards sun, sea, and sand. The less pleasant side of a seaside vacation, however, rips currents.

Anyone who has had the unfortunate experience of crossing paths with one of these monsters will know that it must be one of the most terrifying and frustrating experiences to go through. Your every instinct will prompt you to swim back to shore, only to find yourself being drawn further back into the ocean. The key to your survival when caught in these currents, strangely enough, lies in either conserving energy and floating on your back along with the current; or swimming sideways – parallel with the shoreline – until you can feel the current weakening, giving you the opportunity to swim to shore safely.

Rip currents provide the perfect example to explain the current situation in our local stock market, especially over these past few months. In the same way that your instincts will prompt you to try to swim against a rip current to shore, human instinct will always prompt us to try and determine either the peak or the bottom of a market, and more specifically, individual shares. However, this is exactly where many investors earn themselves a few extra self-inflicted grey hairs.