COVID-19 is a highly transmissible and contagious disease, caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). It is compared to other coronavirus outbreaks such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). While SARS and MERS have been controlled, Covid-19 continues to spread in an uncontrolled manner even after eight months. It’s an insidious virus, evident from the high number of asymptomatic infections, which may unknowingly be passed to others.
The contagiousness of any infection is measured by the reproduction number (R0), which is the average number of susceptible individuals an infected person will transmit the disease to. When the pandemic first came to light, the R0 was 3, i.e. one infected person could spread to three uninfected persons. The R0 for India is now 1.09.
The World Health Organisation has identified four transmission patterns for any outbreak—no confirmed cases; sporadic, where the cases are scattered and occur randomly; cluster or a group of cases; and community transmission which occurs when there are larger outbreaks of local transmission in a new community with no traceable source of origin of infection.
More than one transmission pattern may occur simultaneously and the outbreak can rapidly progress from sporadic to a cluster of cases to community transmission. It is, therefore, important to plan ahead and be prepared for all possible situations, not just the current transmission pattern. Public gatherings and the ensuing cluster infections have played an important role in accelerating the spread of the disease.
Countries are still cautious...
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