WHAT THE SCIENCE SAYS

Sober, simple, expert advice for managing the risks of COVID-19.

- Emily Oster

WHEN COVID-19 FIRST ARRIVED, it seemed like it was only temporary. We’d all hole up at home for a few months, then things would reopen and we could get back to normal. Now, with the global pandemic worsening by the day, it’s clear that we’ll be living with the coronavirus for the foreseeable future. We’re facing an unprecedented level of risk and uncertainty in our daily lives with little reliable information to guide us.

We asked Emily Oster—an economics professor at Brown University who specializes in data-driven approaches to decision-making—to help make sense of all the confusing and often contradictory advice. She consulted more than a dozen doctors and scientists to sort out the most logical, rational, simple guidance that science can offer for just about every virus-related question imaginable.

From what I hear, the virus is mainly fatal for older people and for those who have underlying medical conditions. If I’m a healthy adult, is my risk of dying from it low?

Statistically speaking, yes. In this sense, it’s similar to other respiratory illnesses. The age pattern is very stark with the oldest old dying at extremely high rates. But with covid-19, the fatality rates among everyone who is hospitalized, even younger people, are very high. Among recent hospitalizations in Florida, 5 percent of patients between the ages of 35 and 44 died. That’s much lower than the 60 percent fatality rate for those over 80, but it still tells you that covid-19 can be a very serious illness at any age.

So if I’m over 60, I should be worried?