In the final days before the Iowa caucuses every four years, it’s typical for campaign aides and reporters, and baristas and taxi drivers, and any Iowan who’s ever turned on a television or heard a radio ad, to try predicting which presidential candidates will win and which ones will fall flat. But this year is different. Just two weeks out, as the outcome of the race should be taking shape, almost no one in the state—much less the campaign operatives paid to project confidence to anyone who’ll listen—is comfortable even hazarding a shadow of a guess about the Democratic caucuses. This is, in part, the product of a hangover from the 2016 experience there, when Donald Trump happened and Ted Cruz won the Republican caucuses anyway, and when Bernie Sanders shocked the country by effectively tying Hillary Clinton. But even more than that, it’s about how unusually tight this year’s race is— and how much of the rest of the primary campaign seems to hang on its, for now, totally wide-open outcome.
Come February 4, more than two-thirds of Democrats will be at least some amount of disappointed by who wins Iowa, with a whole lot of them much more panicked than that: If, after a year of seemingly nonstop campaigning, none of the candidates has really pulled in front, how confident can you be, they might ask, that any of them could actually take down Trump? The campaigns know this, and know that after Iowa the field of real contenders is likely to narrow even further—which is why they are all, even the most ideological candidates, so focused on February 3 as a way of demonstrating electability. Because the first and last thing every voter is asking themselves right now is, Who can win in November?
This story is from the {{IssueName}} edition of {{MagazineName}}.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber ? Sign In
This story is from the {{IssueName}} edition of {{MagazineName}}.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber? Sign In
A Wonk in Full- Ezra Klein, glowed-up and post-coup, was almost a celebrity at the convention.
Ezra Klein, glowed-up and post-coup, was almost a celebrity at the convention. Ezra Klein, who is known to keep his passions in check, did not have the right credentials to get into the arena. The Secret Service didn't recognize the New York Times' star "Opinion" writer and podcaster, but eventually he was able to figure out how to get in to where he belonged. This was, after all, as much his convention as any journalist's, since its high-energy optimism turned on the fact that President Joe Biden was no longer leading the ticket and, starting early this year, Klein had led the coup drumbeat.
The Afterlife of Donald Trump - The presidential hopeful contemplates his campaign, his formidable new opponent, and the miracle of his continued existence.
Donald Trump raised his right hand and grabbed hold of it. He bent it backward and forward. I asked if I could take a closer look. These days, the former president and current triple threat-convicted felon, Republican presidential nominee, and recent survivor of an assassination attempt-comes from a place of yes. He waved me over to where he sat on this August afternoon, in a low-to-the-ground chair upholstered in cream brocade fabric in the grand living room at Mar-a-Lago.
Danzy Senna Can't Stop Thinking in Black and White
Her latest novel holds diminishing returns.
Live, Laugh, Love
Dick jokes meet sentimentality in a wily Sandler-Safdie collab.
Tim Burton Is Great Again
A long-awaited sequel revels in gore and nostalgia.
In the Shack With Robert Caro
The Power Broker is turning 50. The final LBJ book is almostwell, he won't say exactly, but he's trying for 900 words a day.
24 Comedians You Should Know RIGHT NOW
THE COMEDY industry is undergoing a metamorphosis in 2024. Name-brand venues like the Second City and UCB are opening or reopening in New York, beloved local spots are being bought out by megacorporations, and streaming-service-helmed comedy festivals are usurping the old-fashioned ones. Post-WGA strike, TV-development execs are growing green-light-shy, Hulu is entering the stand-up fray, and YouTube specials are becoming just as worthy of watching as Netflix specials, if not more so.
Leading Lady
Anna Sawai could take home the Emmy for her performance in Shogun. But she's keeping her cool.
RESTAURANT REVIEW: Le Même Veau
The Frenchette crew has taken over the 87-year-old restaurant, and the snails are as garlicky and the duck as pink as ever.
DESIGN HUNTING: A LOFT WITH A HIGHER PURPOSE
Ali Richmond, co-founder of the nonprofit Fashion for All Foundation, has lived in this Brooklyn loft for almost 20 years with his archive of designer clothing.