Predictions about the future of air to air combat aircraft and of tactical fast jet aircraft have changed rapidly. About a decade ago, many expert observers, analysts, and industry insiders confidently predicted that the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II would be the last manned fighter programme, and that manned fighters would give way to advanced and autonomous stealthy drones.
But since then, a succession of asymmetric and counter-insurgency campaigns have underlined the vital importance of having a human ‘in the loop’, and ‘on the scene.’ Situational awareness is hard to achieve when an operator’s view of the scene is provided by a narrow field-of-view video sensor and via a relatively low-resolution TV screen. There is little ability to detect movement using peripheral vision, nor to pick up a thin wisp of smoke or a momentary glint. A video camera could fail to register visual phenomena like these. Competing demands for bandwidth and enemy GPS jamming can also be limiting factors for unmanned platforms, while latency can make the air-to-air role particularly difficult for an unmanned platform.
As a consequence of these limitations, there has been a distinct shift in attitudes, and Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs) are today seen as a complement to manned combat aircraft, as well as an attritable adjunct. The manned fighter’s future again seems secure, and a number of new types are under development.
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