The S.P.-Congress combine appears to be on a strong wicket in Uttar Pradesh in an atmosphere of disenchantment with demonetisation and reduced communal polarisation.
THREE trends with a wide thematic import are making an increasingly significant impact on the election scene in Uttar Pradesh, even though local issues continue to be the primary factor in the majority of the 403 Assembly constituencies of the State.
First, the steadily rising appreciation of the track record of Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (S.P.) government and the consequent acceptance of the S.P.-Congress alliance. Second the virtual disintegration of the pan-Hindu vote that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) mobilised during the 2014 Lok Sabha election in the context of rampant communal polarisation after riots in different parts of western Uttar Pradesh, including Muzaffarnagar and Shamli.
Three, the growing disapproval of the November 8 demonetisation launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with more and more people turning to the view that its disadvantages outweigh the benefits. These trends are becoming progressively conspicuous as the 140 constituencies in western Uttar Pradesh get ready to vote on February 11 and 15.
The three principal stakeholders in the contest are the S.P.-Congress combine, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP, and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). A sizable number activists in these three political parties and political observers are of the view that unless something extremely dramatic happens, these trends could gather momentum as polling progresses from western Uttar Pradesh to the eastern parts of the State. The Assembly elections will take place in seven phases between February 11 and March 8.
AKHILESH YADAV EFFECT
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