On A Wing And A Prayer

The BJP has more at stake than the Congress in the assembly polls. After the hard fight in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, it has to battle stronger anti-incumbency in Rajasthan. It also has to make sure that Modi’s image does not suffer ahead of the Lok Sabha elections

- ​​​​​​​Pratul Sharma And Soni Mishra

On December 8, 2013, the results of assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi threw up a definitive electoral indicator. The Modi wave was in the making. It would sweep the Lok Sabha polls a few months later, and wipe out the opposition from Uttar Pradesh in the 2017 assembly polls.

This December 11, when results to assembly elections in five states—Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram—will be out, the country will again get an indication as to what to expect in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. And, it will answer several questions. Will the anti-incumbency in the three BJP-ruled states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan become a catalyst for building a similar sentiment across the nation? Will the Congress, if it does well, become the flag-bearer of opposition unity? Or, will it let regional satraps take the lead, if it lacks the numbers? If the BJP retains the three states, will it mean the 2019 polls is a foregone conclusion? Or, will Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with his Teflon-coated image, remain unscathed, irrespective of the results?

The five states comprise 83 Lok Sabha seats; of these, 65 are in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The BJP had won 63 of 65 seats in 2014. The focus is more on these Hindi-speaking states, as the BJP is not in contention in Telangana and Mizoram. Its best hope is to ally with parties opposed to the Congress after the results. In the three BJP-ruled states, Modi’s charisma is seen as an antidote to anti-incumbency. The BJP is also shielding him in event of adverse results—he is scheduled to address only 24 rallies in the five states, against the 34 he addressed in Gujarat last year.