Covid-19: Err On The Side Of Caution

In the absence of firm data, India’s post-lockdown Covid-19 strategy should prioritise life over economy

- N Madhavan

As the unprecedented 21day total lockdown in India winds to an end, the government is facing some very difficult choices. The number of infections — in excess of 5,000 — continues to rise with the infections doubling every five days. The stringent measures put in place by the government is yet to flatten the curve. The Indian Council of Medical Research has said that the country is between stage 2 and stage 3 (large scale community transmission) of the virus life-cycle. So many State governments have sought extension of the lockdown on the grounds that more time is needed to contain the virus.

At the same time calls for easing the lockdown have risen too. After all, the number of infections in a country with 1.3 billion people pales into insignificance compared to that in the US (over 4 lakh cases), Spain (1.4 lakh cases and counting) and Italy (1.36 lakh-plus cases). Not just infections, India’s COVID-related deaths (around 160) is way lower than what other countries are reporting. Italy has lost 17,000 lives while Spain has reported 14,000 deaths and the US 14,000.

Also, India’s fatality rate is just half the global average. And for a country where 2.79 million people contract tuberculosis every year and 4.35 lakh succumb to the disease (1,100 a day), has India over-reacted to the coronavirus? Validity of this question is increasingly gaining ground even as the economic activity in the country has come to a grinding halt pushing the Indian economy, already reeling from the effect of a sharp slowdown, over the cliff.