How Not To Plan For A Rainy Day

The drastic change in the monsoon pattern in recent years calls for a holistic — and quick — policy response

- R Srinivasan

First, credit where credit is due. India’s planning and administrative machinery grinds exceedingly slowly, but eventually, it does get there, provided there is a big enough spur, and the political will to see changes through. Nothing illustrates this better than the fallout of two super cyclones of near equal intensity which struck Odisha 20 years apart.

The 1999 Odisha super cyclone was the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded in the north Indian Ocean region. With wind speeds of over 260 kmph, its impact on Odisha, which bore the brunt of the cyclone, was nothing short of catastrophic. The powerful winds caused storm surges of over six metres, smashing seawater as much as 32 kilometres inland. More than 1.6 million homes were destroyed. While the government’s official death toll was 9,887, unofficial estimates put the toll as high as 30,000. Remember, this was the pre-Aadhaar, pre-mobile era. Many small, unenumerated settlements simply vanished, along with all their people.

Cut to Cyclone Fani, which struck Odisha in May this year, almost exactly 20 years after the 1999 super cyclone. With sustained wind speeds of 185 kmph, gusting up to 250 kmph, it was the second-most severe tropical cyclone ever recorded. But the impact, in terms of people killed, was dramatically different. The death toll was just 64. Out of the 64 people dead, 25 died due to wall collapse, 20 were crushed by trees, hoardings and fallen electric poles and six people were buried under collapsed roofs. This happened because this time around, the machinery was ready. More than 1.2 million people had been evacuated to pre-built storm shelters, more than 2.3 million text messages had alerted others to move out of harm’s way. More than 9,000 community kitchens kept people fed. The economic impact was still enormous, but thousands of precious lives had been saved.