The Middle East is heating up. Fears are growing of an increasing spiral of conflict principally between Israel and Iran, which is already sucking in other regional states as well as international actors like the UK and the US.
The immediate backdrop here is the brutal 7 October Hamas attack on Israel, which killed more than 1,000 people and included the taking of hundreds of hostages. Israel swiftly responded with a full-on assault on Gaza, which has killed many thousands more and destroyed swathes of infrastructure.
Iran has long been a key funder of Hamas, as well as Hezbollah, the terrorist group/political party in Lebanon that has engaged in multiple skirmishes and conflicts. Iran has also funded and supplied the Houthis in Yemen with weapons and allied know how, allowing them not only to terrorise Yemeni civilians but to increasingly target international shipping.
The point is that the so-called “shadow” war between Iran and Israel has been going on for decades. Escalation into the situation we are witnessing today was always likely to occur – but how bad will it get?
On 1 April, Israel bombed Iran’s consulate in Syria, killing senior Iranian generals. Iran enacted its response on 13 April, launching more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel. Though Iran has sponsored organisations like Hamas and Hezbollah, which have attacked Israel on thousands of occasions, this was Iran’s first ever direct attack on the Jewish state.
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