Is The West Really Heading Towards A Third World War?

The chief of the general staff and head of the army, General Sir Patrick Sanders, has given a valedictory address in which he describes the current population of the UK as a "pre-war generation", and one that must now get ready to take "preparatory steps to enable placing our societies on a war footing".

- SEAN O'GRADY

A “national mobilisation” against Vladimir Putin’s Russia is the sort of language that would have been unthinkable, if not alarmist or satirical, only a few years ago, but the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and a consistently bellicose stance from the Kremlin has suddenly made such notions mainstream.

What does Gen Sanders mean by ‘pre-war generation’?

Literally that. For about two decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union in about 1990, the West was able to stop worrying about the medium-term risk of war with the USSR because it had ceased to exist. Western governments soon enough took advantage of the “peace dividend”, partially disarmed and diverted defence spending to private consumption and public services.

Now, the assumption is that war with Russia and/or others may not be far distant. As Defence Secretary Grant Shapps put it recently: “In five years’ time we could be looking at multiple theatres involving Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. Ask yourselves – looking at today’s conflicts across the world – is it more likely that the number grows or reduces? I suspect we all know the answer – it’s likely to grow. So, 2024 must mark an inflexion point.”

What does he want?