WHAT do the results of the 2024 Indian general elections portend? I am not referring to who will win but by how many seats. Let us accept, for the time being, that it is Narendra Modi's ruling BJP, which has a clear lead after the first three phases of voting. But what is not equally certain is with what margin of victory and with how many seats. More and more, it seems that the dream of Chaarsau Paar or 400plus will be difficult to manage. Even crossing the earlier watershed of 303 is now, according to many, uncertain.
Why? Because, as several analysts have observed, this is a much more of a waveless than wavy election. At least so far. Even the recently released working paper on "Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)" by the Economic Advisory Council of the Prime Minister (EACPM), though timed to perfection right in the middle of the election season, many not actually have the Pulwama effect. Despite the rising shrillness of the antiMuslim rhetoric of ruling party campaigners, including Modi himself.
"It's the economy, stupid"-former American president Bill Clinton's famous apothegm notwithstanding, the Muslim question will continue to be a focal point in Indian elections. It is not that Surjit Bhalla's latest book How We Vote: The Factors That Influence Voters (2024) gets it wrong. Yes. People do vote with their pocketbooks. In India, where many have neither wallets nor pockets, they do vote for the party or the leader who directly impacts and improves their daily lives.
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