UP: Why BJP Needs A Big Win

Just victory not enough for incumbent, because its larger ambitions require another sweep

- Gilles Verniers

The Uttar Pradesh campaign is intensifying as the first phase of voting approaches. Even though parties have raised their game and sharpened their attacks against their adversaries, the fragmented opposition space still gives the incumbent a great competitive advantage.

Despite this, BJP is sparing no effort in its campaign, to the point of betraying anxiety, which some may find surprising given the gap that separates it from its main opponent.

One possible explanation for the incumbent’s intense drive is that its main competitive pressure comes not from its adversaries, but from within, as BJP needs to not only win this election, but win it decisively, on a par with its recent performances.

In 2017, BJP won 77% of the seats with nearly 40% of the votes (41.6% in the seats it contested). In 2019, it won 62 of the state’s 80 Lok Sabha seats with 49.5% of the votes, leading, however, in fewer assembly segments than in 2017 (275).

Even though these were two different elections, this variation in wins shows that even maintaining its vote share may not necessarily translate into the same number of seats. All depends on the spatial distribution of the votes.