Have A Crack At The Derby

Tony Keenan casts his eye over the Classic action at The Curragh — and the rest of July’s highlights

- Tony Keenan

To figure out the winner of the Irish Derby at the Curragh on July 1 one has to try to make sense out of the beautiful chaos that was the English equivalent. Eighteen horses went to post for that race, a field size more akin to Churchill Downs than Epsom, and there was a lot going on; it needed a number of replays to draw any conclusions from the race. That’s the sort of difficult conundrum that some punters will give up on all too quickly but that difficulty can produce betting value as some of those in the market have not been willing to dig deeply enough.

One feature of the three Group 1s at the Epsom meeting was how poorly some of the runners handled the course but one horse that seemed totally at home was the Derby winner Wings Of Eagles which is a reason why he may not back the form up at a more conventional track. When we couple that with the general surprise at his win from connections post-race – and this is an operation that tends to get their colts pretty right in terms of pecking order – further doubts start creeping in. Nor is his overall profile convincing; this is a horse that has won twice in six starts and returned starting prices of 7/1, 5/2, 10/1, 33/1, 8/1 and famously 40/1; Ballydoyle get them wrong now and then but rarely to such a degree. He was the best horse on the day at Epsom which is backed up by sectional times and he did meet some trouble in running but I doubt he’ll prove the best in time.