NICHOLLS WILL BE KEEN TO FOLLOW UP

Andy Newton casts his experienced eye over the Newbury hurdle

- Andy Newton

I used to think February was a bit of a dull month when it came to the racing, but actually I’m changing my opinion…it’s not half bad.

As well as the races already covered in this edition, we also the decent Newbury Saturday card on February 13 that includes the Denman Chase, Betfair Exchange Chase (Game Spirit) and the Betfair Hurdle. It’s that last named race I’m going to focus on now in more detail.

Generally, one of the most competitive handicap hurdles on the calendar, this Grade Three contest is run over 2m 1/2f and is always well-supported by the big National Hunt yards – backed up in recent years with the Paul Nicholls, Nigel Twiston-Davies and Nicky Henderson stables winning six of the last nine renewals between them.

So, what are the other main trends to look for?

Weight – Being a handicap weight carried is, of course, worth considering. ALL of the last 18 winners carried 11st 8lbs or less, which will be the bulk of the runners, but we can take this trend a bit further with 10 of the last 18 carrying 10st 9lbs or less. However, a small word of caution here as this weight trend could be taking a turn in the other direction as the last four winners all carried 11st 1lb or more, with 6 of the last 9 also ticking that stat.