BY THE END OF 2024, the Indian economy will cross an important milestone: a GDP of $4 trillion. India’s GDP is currently $3.70 trillion. Nominal GDP is estimated to grow 11 per cent in calendar 2024 (real 6.5 per cent plus 4.5 per cent inflation deflator) to $4.10 trillion.
That will put India within sight of Germany ($4.2 trillion) and Japan ($4.4 trillion). In 2025, it will pass Germany and in 2026 Japan too, to become the world’s third largest economy
Chris Bradley is a director at McKinsey, Global Institute. He made important points in a recent interview with The Economic Times: “The world in 2050 cannot be prosperous without India participating in it. China will lose 200 million workers to ageing by 2050, but India will gain at least 220 million workers from farm migration. So, there will be a massive shift in the labour pool to the Global South.”
Bradley, however, sounds a word of caution. India’s labour productivity is still not high enough. Upskilling is key to India reaping the full harvest of its demographic dividend which began around 2016 and will last till the mid-2040s. India’s productivity is 40 per cent of China’s and just 12.5 per cent of Japan’s.
The next two decades are therefore crucial. Just as China made full use of its peak demographic dividend between 2000 and 2020 during which its GDP rose 12x from $1.21 trillion to $14.69 trillion, this is India’s opportunity to make the two-decadal big leap forward.
This story is from the {{IssueName}} edition of {{MagazineName}}.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber ? Sign In
This story is from the {{IssueName}} edition of {{MagazineName}}.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber? Sign In
Is Leadership Without Hierarchies Possible?
LEADERSHIP IN THE current era is more challenging than ever before.
The Rise and Evolution of Coffee Culture in India
AS A BANGALORE native, South Indian filter ‘Kaapi’ has always been a significant part of our tradition.
The Daily Ground Goes Desi
Success in Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities hinges on several key factors, with one of the most important being the ability to offer high-quality products at an accessible price point
Cracking The Indian Code
TARUN JAIN, CEO of Tim Hortons India believes in creating an experience at cafes by blending global quality, local flavours and affordability
Making Coffee the New Chai in India
Affordable, great-tasting coffee made fast-abCoffee is reshaping how India drinks coffee
Scripting A New Era Of Coffee In India
From a bootstrapped startup to international expansion, NOTHING BEFORE COFFEE is brewing its way to the top by challenging the giants of the coffee industry with innovation, personalisation, and sustainability
"Driven By A Younger Demographic, Coffee Culture Is On The Upswing"
SUNIL D'SOUZA, Managing Director and CEO of Tata Consumer Products, discusses the company's strategic growth in India's booming coffee market, focusing on premiumisation, innovation, and expanding consumer experiences both at home and in cafés, in this exclusive conversation with BW Businessworld's Tarannum Manjul
Fresh Brew, Big Ambitions
From startups to stores, Beanly's Samayesh Khanna and Rahul Jain elevate India's coffee culture by making freshly brewed coffee a daily delight
"On Track To Become India's Top Café Chain"
In an exclusive interview, RAJAT AGRAWAL, CEO of Barista Coffee, shared insights on the company's current market position, expansion strategies, and its response to growing competition
"Ensuring A Seamless Coffee Experience Outside The Cafe Is The Next Big Thing To Watch Out For"
In an exclusive conversation with BW Businessworld's Resham Suhail, Third Wave Coffee CEO RAJAT LUTHRA and its Co-founder AYUSH BATHWAL delve on how they are navigating the competitive landscape, going beyond retail and tapping changing consumer preferences