THE INDIAN ECONOMY is well and truly on the growth path. An affirmation of this came in the form of an impressive first quarter performance by listed Indian companies across key sectors like banking, FMCG, automotive, and paints, which have recovered sharply from the recent lows. What’s more, recent forecasts for the economy have added to the optimistic outlook for FY24. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its July 2023 update of the World Economic Outlook, raised India’s projected growth from 5.9 per cent to 6.1 per cent, indicating economic recovery. International rating agency Fitch too revised India’s growth projection for FY24 to 6.3 per cent from 6 per cent. The ADB, in its July 2023 Asian Development Outlook, predicted 6.4 per cent growth for India in FY24.
High-frequency indicators for May and June 2023 too attest to strong growth momentum during 1QFY24. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing and services maintained elevated levels of 57.8 and 58.5, respectively, in June 2023 (see chart). Notably, the PMI, an economic indicator derived from the monthly survey of the private sector companies, averaged 57.9 in Q1FY24, the highest since Q4FY10, while PMI services averaged 60.6, its highest since Q1FY11. Bank credit grew a healthy 15.4 per cent in May, and 15.9 per cent in April 2023.
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