The recently concluded Farnborough International Airshow, provided an unprecedented insight into the latest developments underway at major Urban Air Mobility (UAM) providers.
There is no doubt that the future air mobility (FAM) market is large. A June 2023 McKinsey study stated that the industry had orders in hand for over 18,000 aircraft, representing an estimated $111 billion in sales. In comparison, the order backlog for commercial aviation stood at 16,500 aircraft (14,300 firm orders and 2,200 options).
However, the report went on to state that while the size of the current order backlog is notable, the durability of these orders remains in question with less than 1 per cent of all orders mentioning any type of aircraft deposits or pre-payments and just over half (51 per cent) being firm orders with the remainder being Letters of Intent (LOI) and options.
The McKinsey study highlights an important aspect which UAM companies need to guard against. It says that many orders are contingent on OEMs achieving specific technical milestones such as test flights, conforming prototypes, or type certification. As a result, delays in aircraft development or performance shortfalls could result in orders evaporating rapidly.
Eve Nears Take-Off
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