In 2022, world fisheries and aquaculture production reached 186 million tons of aquatic animals, and this is expected to increase an additional 10% to reach 205 million tons by 2032. Despite this increase, the rate and absolute level of growth are projected to decline compared with the 22% growth (33 million tons) achieved during the previous decade (2012 to 2022).
Most of the current decade (2022 to 2032) increase will come from aquaculture, expected to break the 100 million tons threshold for the first time in 2027, reaching 111 million tons in 2032, with an overall growth of 17% or nearly 16 million tons compared with 2022.
The continuous increase in aquaculture production projected over the period 2022 to 2032 will occur at an average annual growth rate of 1,6%, less than half the 4% rate observed in 2012 to 2022. This reduced growth rate will depend on several factors such as wider adoption and enforcement of environmental regulations; reduced availability of water (both quality and quantity) and suitable aquaculture sites; increasing impact of aquatic animal diseases in intensive aquaculture; and reduced productivity gains.
IMPACT OF POLICIES
Chinese policies are expected to account significantly for the overall reduced growth.
Initiated in 2016, these policies aim to continue integrating environmental considerations in aquaculture production to improve its sustainability by promoting the adoption of ecologically sound technological innovations and water recycling; not extending the areas dedicated to aquaculture; and reducing the use of antibiotics in production. All these actions will cause an initial capacity reduction, followed by faster growth.
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