Annie Duke, a well-known decision-making expert and professional poker player, has honed her skills in probabilistic thinking, risk management, and emotional control for over two decades. In her best-selling book “Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts,” she shares 18 strategies and tools that can be applied to make informed decisions in investing and the stock market.
• Acknowledge Uncertainty: Investors should acknowledge the inherent uncertainty in the investing process, despite the amount of research conducted. Unexpected events can always occur, and relying too heavily on any one particular piece of information can be detrimental. It is essential to embrace uncertainty and make investment decisions based on probabilities.
• Embrace The Probabilities: In investing, probabilities play a critical role. When evaluating a stock, investors should consider the likelihood of the company’s earnings growth and the market’s positive response to its news. By thinking in terms of probabilities, investors can make more informed decisions and avoid relying solely on gut instincts.
• Avoid Binary Thinking: Binary thinking occurs when investors think in terms of absolute outcomes, such as whether a stock will go up or down. However, the future is uncertain, and the most likely outcome is rarely a 100% certainty. Investors should instead think in probabilities and adjust their investment strategy accordingly. This approach can help investors avoid making overly simplistic investment decisions that fail to take into account the complex reality of the investing world.
This story is from the {{IssueName}} edition of {{MagazineName}}.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber ? Sign In
This story is from the {{IssueName}} edition of {{MagazineName}}.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber? Sign In
PRUDENT PRACTICES
Banks worldwide navigate a complex balancing act, steering economies toward growth while safeguarding financial stability through thoughtful management of interest rates and credit risks
RETAIN ROULETTE
Inexperienced investors spin the market wheel, chasing dizzying valuations and risking a bubble burst
UNRAVELED THREADS
Bangladesh's crisis disrupts global textiles, offering India a potential opportunity, but production constraints limit its gains
PASSING THE BATON
Succession planning helps ensure uninterrupted leadership
RISKY BUSINESS?
SEBI's efforts to protect retail investors from derivatives market risks could inadvertently dampen market volumes
INFLATION-PROOF YOUR CHILD'S FUTURE
Inflation might be stealing your child's future, but children's mutual funds can be their superhero
EMBRACE UNCERTAINTY, SAYS MARKS
Howard Marks urges investors to embrace uncertainty, long-term thinking, and focus on controllables, shunning in his memo “The Folly of Certainty”
IMPORTANT JARGON
70% OF INDIVIDUAL INTRADAY TRADERS IN THE EQUITY CASH SEGMENT MAKE LOSSES, FINDS SEBI STUDY
AN ASCENT T'O NEW HEIGHTS
The IMF predicts India's economy to reach 55 trillion by 2047, driven by various economic indicators showing positive growth and government initiatives
CARRY TRADE CRASH: GLOBAL MARKETS REEL
Japan’s Policy Shift Sends Shockwaves Through Global Markets, Including India, as Yen Carry Trade Disintegrates