A SMALL BYELECTION of big consequences is playing out in Uttar Pradesh. Nine assembly constituencies will go to the hustings on November 20 while the poll date for a tenth—Milkipur (Faizabad)—is yet to be announced.
In an assembly with 403 members, 10 is a tiny number. But after the Lok Sabha elections that left the BJP with just 33 seats, compared with the 62 it won in 2019, this is an election of prestige, of salvaging bruised egos. It is also the most significant election before the state chooses its next Vidhan Sabha in 2027.
The constituencies that go to the polls are spread across the state. In the west are Ghaziabad, Khair (Aligarh), Kundarki (Moradabad) and Meerapur (Muzaffarnagar). Phulpur (Allahabad), Katehari (Ambedkarnagar) and Sishamau (Kanpur) fall in the centre, while Karhal (Mainpuri) is close to the centre. The last is Majhawan (Mirzapur) in the east.
In 2022, the Samajwadi Party won five of these seats (Milkipur included), and the BJP came in second with three. One seat each went to the Nishad Party and the Rashtriya Lok Dal, both allies of the BJP.
Between 2022 and 2024, the INDIA bloc saw an increase in the vote share in all these constituencies, while the National Democratic Alliance lost its share in all. While the Samajwadi Party has had three winning streaks in Karhal, Kundarki and Sishamau; it has won Milkipur and Katehari twice. The BJP’s show is poorer in comparison. Ghaziabad, Khair and Phulpur are seats it has won twice. The Bahujan Samaj Party, which, in a departure from norm, is fighting on all seats, only managed to increase its vote share in Meerapur though it won no seats in 2022.
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