STILL VOTERS RUN DEEP

THE BJP IS RELYING ON MODI AND YOGI, THE SP IS TRYING TO SHED ITS OLD IMAGE, THE CONGRESS SEEMS ABSENT ON THE GROUND, AND THE BSP IS IN A BATTLE FOR SURVIVAL. THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE OF THESE ELECTIONS, THOUGH, IS SILENCE

- PUJA AWASTHI

Aloud silence is the most deafening noise this election has created in Uttar Pradesh. It is a puzzling poll; not expected to flummox, but likely to checkmate popular perceptions.

The BJP is banking on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the unapologetically sanatan stance of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, the vastly improved law and order situation, and women’s security. The Samajwadi Party and the Congress are fighting as part of the INDIA bloc, displaying their pulling power with joint rallies. The Bahujan Samaj Party is locked in a solo battle for survival, and it seems to be frittering away its chance.

But ‘seems’ is as good as a poll prediction gets in Uttar Pradesh. Every questionWhy is the BJP fighting so hard if it is assured of a win? Do crowds at rallies really translate into votes? How far would a party go to survive?— holds its own answer, and spawns some more questions.

There is no wave, no rallying slogans. Phase after phase, the message has changed. And in every phase, the silent voter has turned out a tad less than s/he did in 2019.

Of the state’s 80 seats, 62 are with the BJP. The Congress has one; the SP, five; and the BSP, 10. The shadow of these elections will stretch to the state polls that are three years away.

Badri Narayan, director of the Govind Ballabh Pant Social Science Institute in Prayagraj, said this was an election of narrow margins—both in victory and defeat.

“There are three broad themes of the election,” he said. “An undercurrent of Modi’s popularity, the crucial role that the BSP will play in deciding margins, and the staunch opposition of Muslims that will benefit the Congress-SP.”