The All Blacks have won 13 of the 15 Tests in New Zealand between the two nations, with the only England Test successes coming in 1973 under John Pullin, and 2003 under Martin Johnson.
Watching England drubbings in Dunedin, or executions at Eden Park, has been an occupational hazard over the last 25 years – and it makes me cautious about Steve Borthwick’s touring side being able to buck the trend.
An overriding concern is that the basketball rugby that was once the preserve of Super Rugby has now been adopted by the Premiership clubs with such zeal that most defences are now poor.
Results in the last round of the Premiership last weekend, compared with those in Super Rugby told the story. While the top English league featured four matches out of five with winning margins of 40 to 54 points, in five out of six results in Super Rugby the winning margins were 26 to 34 points.
The three New Zealand teams in the top four in the Super Rugby table also have the best defensive records, while the All Blacks showed at the 2023 World Cup that their scramble defence is still among the best in the world. Given the open-door defences in the Premiership, New Zealand’s new coach Scott Robertson will be primed to cut up England at every opportunity – unless they make marked improvements by the start of July.
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