It was Tory premier Harold Supermac Macmillan's answer when asked about the greatest challenge facing a statesman.
But like most truisms, it is founded in truth. Unexpected hits wreck Prime Ministers.
Think David Cameron and his ill-fated Brexit referendum.
It's how they handle them that counts, and few incomers to Downing Street have confronted a more testing start than Sir Keir Starmer.
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