Mr Trump has once again pledged to wind down American backing for the Ukraine government in facing down the Russian invasion. This position has been stated more strongly by his new vice-presidential candidate JD Vance. But even a Kamala Harris presidency is likely to row back on support for Nato in Europe.
The Starmer government has been pitched into Nato leadership as the alliance faces increasing confrontation from Russia, new tactics and techniques of interference. With its whopping parliamentary majority, the UK Labour government is seen as the strongest and most stable of the lead European Nato allies — in contrast with the constitutional chaos in France, and the weakness of Olaf Scholz’s coalition in Germany.
The UK’s military leadership is keen to emphasise that “we are not at war with Russia — and it is unlikely that Russia will invade a Nato member in the near future,” in the words of a senior Whitehall source. “ But we face increased instability and disruption in places like Moldova — from the Russians — and the Houthis in Yemen threatening global marit ime commerce.” Close allies such as Norway, Sweden, Finland and Poland put the threat from Russia more bluntly. The Norwegian defence staff describes northern and eastern Europe as being in a state of “pre-war”, which could rapidly develop into outright conflict.
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