Wall Street is optimistic that a buoyant stock market, declining interest rates and Donald Trump's lighter-regulation agenda will prompt a dealmaking rebound in 2025. But jitters remain thanks to the president-elect's unpredictability.
Deal volume has been muted for the past few years following record volumes coming out of the pandemic. While total global deal volume is up roughly 12% in 2024 through Dec. 26 compared with the same period in 2023, the number of transactions is lower and volume remains well below the 2021 high, according to Dealogic data.
Dealmakers were encouraged when Trump in December picked Andrew Ferguson, the Republican Federal Trade Commission member, to succeed FTC Chair Lina Khan. Ferguson and Republicans are expected to dismantle Khan's guidelines that gave the agency new legal powers to try to block deals.
Still, Jay Novak, global co-head of corporate finance at the investment bank Houlihan Lokey, said it remains to be seen exactly where the new Trump administration's antitrust policy will land.
"Sentiment is certainly more positive. People don't really know the answer, but they're more positive about the direction," he said.
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