The government's India Meteorological Department has already predicted August rainfall to be below normal and at a 94% LPA. Skymet has retained its monsoon forecast at 94% LPA with an error margin of 5% for the entire fourmonth season. Extreme weather patterns have resulted in surplus rain in the northern region and deficiency in eastern India that generally receives the highest average precipitation in the country.
Eastern and northeastern India that have received 23% less rainfall than normal, are likely to get to monsoon showers in the first week of August, and rainfall could be normal to above normal, Singh said. El Nino, which is still in an evolving phase, is expected to gain strength throughout the monsoon season, pushing sea surface temperatures (SST) to 2 degrees celsius and disrupt rainfall in August and September, he added.
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