Secondly, the improvement in CAD this time has been broad-based driven by a sizeable narrowing in merchandise trade deficit and sharp increase in both services trade surplus as well as net remittances received, both of which are at historic high levels.
Thirdly, the overall BoP has swung back to a surplus of $11 billion in Q3 after a sizeable deficit in Q2. BoP surplus indicates net inflow of US dollars in the economy and thus is a fundamental support pillar for the Indian rupee.
This encouraging story is likely to continue in Q4 as well with the expected further narrowing in the CAD. Trade deficit has already narrowed sharply in the first two months of Q4, averaging at $17 billion compared to an average of $24 billion per month in Q3. Services exports have been robust keeping the surplus in this account near record highs.
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