The southwest monsoon may face stronger-than-expected El Niño conditions that could result in weak rainfall, reduced crop output, and implications for the overall Indian economy.
In its monthly outlook, the US National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said El Niño conditions associated with the warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are expected to gradually strengthen into the winter, triggering concerns over extreme weather events worldwide and a weak monsoon in India.
“Depending on its strength, El Niño can cause a range of impacts, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and droughts in certain locations around the world," said Michelle L’Heureux, a climate scientist at the Climate Prediction Center, a scientific office within NOAA that monitors climate variability and change. “Climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts related to El Niño. For example, El Niño could lead to new records for temperatures, particularly in areas that already experience above-average temperatures during El Niño."
A single El Niño event may not result in all these impacts, but El Niño increases the odds of them occurring, she added.
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