Most recent estimates of national income present a mixed picture of our post-pandemic recovery.
Economic growth in 2022-23 is expected at 7% with gross value added seen rising 6.6%. However, a sectoral break-up of the data suggests unevenness. Manufacturing is expected to increase by only 0.6%. What should also worry us is that this sector has seen a contraction for the second consecutive quarter. Data also suggests weakening in key drivers of demand, such as private consumption and exports.
Therefore, any exuberance based on India's aggregate GDP data may be misplaced. This is also because our GDP data has shown significant fluctuations in provisional estimates compared to final estimates. Other than the uneven nature of growth, an uncertain external environment having spelt a decline in export growth over the last three months, sustained inflationary pressures and the vulnerability of agriculture to weather shocks are serious concerns as well.
What also signals a need for caution is Indian data on income from multiple sources. These numbers do not offer the optimism seen in national accounts and this is a particularly important problem right now, given the continued weakness in consumption and investment.
This story is from the {{IssueName}} edition of {{MagazineName}}.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber ? Sign In
This story is from the {{IssueName}} edition of {{MagazineName}}.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber? Sign In
Quick Edit: The market's green role
The world needs to bend its rising curve of carbon emissions, a goal that's proving elusive. Adding to the challenge, US climate policy is likely to flip back into neglect mode next year.
Growth shouldn't suffer for want of a market fix
Packaged food companies should drive a food-processing revolution and run a campaign for substitution of fresh-veggie demand. It'll crush price volatility and open up space for rate cuts
We should reform import tariffs to boost Make in India!
Tariff reforms to resolve duty inversions can arrest the 'cost competitiveness leak' of Indian manufacturing
Trying to quantify everything may worsen human decisions
'Quantification fixation' is real—and we should learn to resist it
Hope has sprung anew amid the thick haze hovering over COP-29
The climate summit has seen rules being ratified for a carbon market, progress on finance and high corporate participation
Trump's return is set to send the world scouting for fresh options
His confrontational stand on issues will ruffle feathers and make nations review their alignments
Why national pride has not helped clean up Delhi's air
A sense of shame was expected to get it done. That hasn't worked. Do we lack the will and talent?
SEBI CAN DO MORE TO DISSUADE RETAIL F&O SPECULATION
A recent Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) report highlighted the significant losses individual traders have incurred in the equity futures and options (F&O) segment between FY22 and FY24.
Is filing ITR in old regime still valid?
I am with the Indian Army. Until last year, we received Form 16 under the old tax regime, including allowances such as HRA, travel and uniform.
Avoid common mistakes in NRO, NRE accounts: A guide for NRIs
Tips on using NRE and NRO accounts to effectively manage funds, repatriate money and remain tax-compliant
