Inflation in food items is expected to be a temporary -phenomenon, as the Indian government's pre-emptive measures and the upcoming arrival of fresh crops are predicted to cool down prices. However, the persisting global uncertainty and domestic disruptions might continue to exert inflationary pressures in the coming months. The Ministry of Finance highlighted these dynamics in its Monthly Economic Review for July.
July 2023 witnessed the consumer price index-based retail inflation surge to a 15-month high of 7.44%. This surge was largely driven by specific food commodities. Notably, core inflation remained low at 4.9%. Cereals, pulses, and vegetables experienced double-digit growth in July compared to the same period last year. Disruptions in domestic production further aggravated inflationary pressures. A disruption in tomato supply due to the white fly disease in Karnataka's Kolar district and the swift onset of monsoon in northern India caused a surge in tomato prices. Additionally, the price of tur dal inflated due to deficient production in the kharif season of 2022-23.
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