Q: As elections approach and India looks to a new innings in governance, how different is the export scenario now as compared to the decade earlier?
A: If you are looking at the period before the Modi Government, and at export performance, we have to see this from the prism of the entire ecosystem because exports cannot be taken in isolation. India had the advantage because we were not being bound by the discipline of the WTO. There are years in which during the previous government exports had moved up. Probably there were more schemes to support export because it was possible to provide that cushion. From that perspective after the first series of economic reforms in 1991, export has certainly been taken as a priority and export growth has been spectacular. However, since then, what we have seen is that since manufacturing was not doing well, exports staggered around USD 300 bn only. On a number of occasions, the Government came up with a strategy to take it to USD 500 bn but exports av eraged between USD 320 bn, USD 330 bn, or USD 324 bn.
In the Modi era after India graduated out of the special and differential treatment policy in 2017, the earlier flexibility is no longer with us. We are more bound by the WTO discipline than we were earlier. Secondly, some of the countries have taken us to the dispute settlement board also. Unfortunately we lost the cases. Hence we were not having that elbow room to provide the support that was possible in the pre Modi era.
Q: By how much will exports grow in FY24 amidst various global challenges?
A: Export of goods and services should be up USD 10 bn in FY24. So far exports of goods are concerned, merchandise should be USD 435-440 bn. When it comes to services, I think it should be in the range of USD 360 bn. I believe that for the entire FY24, CAD may be 1 to 1.2 per cent.
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