The Russian economy is on track to be cut in half," Joe Biden said in March last year, as he heralded sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine. In Europe, too, the talk was tough: Annalena Baerbock, the German foreign minister, said the sanctions were "hitting the Putin system... at its core of power". The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said the aim was to "cripple Putin's ability to finance his war machine".
The reality was somewhat different, reflecting what analysts say was a hubristic over-confidence about the speed sanctions agreed with unprecedented coordination by the G7 could damage Russia.
The Russian economy contracted by only 2.2% last year. Unemployment, according to admittedly dubious official figures, stands at 3.7%. The car and electronics industries have suffered but construction has grown. A bumper harvest boosted agriculture.
Russia is now forecast to grow faster in 2023 and 2024 than the UK. As the war hits its one-year anniversary on 24 February, the debate about whether sanctions are effective has intensified.
Defenders say the rouble and headline GDP are dreadful indicators, partly because Russian statistics are manipulated as part of the war effort. "Please do not ask me about GDP figures. They do not matter," said Elina Ribakova, the deputy chief economist at the Institute of International Finance.
Vladimir Milov, a former Russian energy minister, ally of Alexei Navalny, and author of a Martens Centre report on sanctions, said it might be more instructive to track a dozen or so "soft indicators" such as alcohol sales, divorce rates, shoplifting, spending on food, bank customer sentiment or tax revenues.
This story is from the {{IssueName}} edition of {{MagazineName}}.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber ? Sign In
This story is from the {{IssueName}} edition of {{MagazineName}}.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber? Sign In
Starlink's conquest of the Amazon leaves Brazil in a dilemma
The helicopter swooped into one of the most inaccessible corners of the Amazon rainforest. Brazilian special forces commandos leaped from it into the caiman-inhabited waters below.
Dalai Lama's mountain town feels the strain of tourist boom
SUVs and saloon cars pass slowly along McLeod Ganj's narrow one-way Jogiwara Road, blaring horns at pedestrians and scooter riders and playing loud music.
'I am all the world' The brutal rule of a West Bank settler
Palestinians tell ofblacklisted Yakov's reign across the Jabal Salman valley and heisjust one of many violent bosses
Stormy waters New flashpoint emerges in South China Sea dispute
Hopes that tensions in the South China Sea might ease have been short lived.
'Justice delayed' Why trust in public inquiries to bring closure is fading
After the final report of the Grenfell fire inquiry was published, Hisam Choucair, who lost six family members in the blaze, said: \"We did not ask for this inquiry... It's delayed the justice my family deserves.\"
Celeriac soup with almond pangrattato
I'm not ashamed to say that as soon as September hits, my stick blender comes out. Just as I embrace salads when the clocks go forward in the UK, I wholeheartedly throw myself into soup season once the summer holidays end. Autumn is approaching in the northern hemisphere and I'm ready with my ladle. Celeriac is one of my favourite soup heroes, because it gives the creamiest, silkiest finish with little effort. You don't have to make the almond pangrattato, but it is a wonderful addition.
Are smoke signals telling me to make an oil change in the kitchen?
Should you that is, not can you) cook with extra-virgin olive oil? Antonio, Atlanta, Georgia, US
Going underground
A darkly humorous encounter between an American spy-cop and the members ofan eco-commune she is hired to infiltrate
All work and no play
Hard Graft, a powerfulnew London exhibition, focuses onworkers’ exploitation, from the ruined hands ofa washerwoman to mothers forced to sell their bodies
What the princess and the shaman tell us about hereditary privilege
It should have been an Instagram-perfect wedding image, but it turned out to be something more embarrassing.