Here's one prediction about the US election you can take to the bank. When the result is finally known, there will be a stampede of experts and prognosticators rushing to insist that, in effect, they knew it all along that, hard though it was to glimpse through the fog of polls and shifting data, the eventual outcome was obvious. Even inevitable.
That will be truer still if, when the voters' will is finally known, it turns out not to have been so close after all, with one of the two main candidates sweeping most of the swing states to rack up a healthy majority in the electoral college if not the popular vote.
The funny thing is, if that happens for either candidate - it would not entirely be a surprise. In advance, you could sketch out a very plausible case for why Donald Trump could retake the presidency. And you could do the same for why Kamala Harris might become the first woman to hold the world's most powerful office.
Start with the scenario of a victorious Trump understand it might require a single number: 28. That's the percentage of Americans who tell pollsters they believe the country is on the right track. A measly 28%. In that environment, incumbent parties lose. And, for all the drama and buzz of her swift installation as candidate, her positioning as the face of change, Harris is a member of the incumbent party and a senior figure in the current US government. A nation that made clear long ago that it wanted to fire Joe Biden, largely over the cost of living and rising prices, as well as immigration, was bound to seize the chance to do the next best thing and reject his deputy.
If there was a way to avoid that fate, it would have required Harris to make a cleaner break from Biden than she was willing to. Whether it was personal respect for the man, or fear of rupturing her coalition, she didn't do what had to be done.
This story is from the {{IssueName}} edition of {{MagazineName}}.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber ? Sign In
This story is from the {{IssueName}} edition of {{MagazineName}}.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber? Sign In
If kids get protected from online harm, how about the rest of us?
The Australian government has proposed a ban on social media for all citizens under 16.
'It's not drought - it's looting'
Spain is increasingly either parched or flooded - and one group is profiting from these extremes: the thirsty multinational companies forcing angry citizens to pay for water in bottles.
Life in the grey Zone
Neonatal care has advanced so far that babies born as early as 21 weeks have survived. But is this type of care always the right thing to do?
Out of tune? Band Aid under fire for Africa tropes as it turns 40
Forty years ago this month, a group of pop stars gathered at a west London studio to record a single that would raise millions, inspire further starry projects, and ultimately change charity fundraising in the UK.
Deaths shine spotlight on risks of drinking on party trail
Vang Vieng is an unlikely party hub. Surrounded by striking limestone mountains and caves in central Laos, it morphed from a small farming town to a hedonistic tourist destination in the early 2000s.
Different strokes My strange and emotional week with an AI pet
Moflin can develop a personality and build a rapport with its owner - and doesn't need food or exercise. But is it comforting or alienating?
Strike zone Waking up to the rising threat of lightning
When the Barbados National Archives, home to one of the world's most significant collections of documents from the transatlantic slave trade, reported in June that it had been struck by lightning, it received sympathy and offers of support locally and internationally.
Cheap pints and sticky carpets: the old-school pub is back
In the Palm Tree pub, east London, barman Alf is taking only cash at the rattling 1960s till.
Brain gain Can a radical tax scheme convince the country's brightest to stay?
In the autumn of 2018, I moved to Lisbon for a month-long course at the Universidade .de Lisboa.
Fear and sympathy in small town divided over asylum camp
A year after anti-immigration riots, a site for asylum seekers faces hostility while some locals try to help new arrivals
