In its first MRP model of the 2024 general election, Ipsos estimated Labour could win 453 seats and the Conservatives 115, giving Keir Starmer's party a majority of 256 and inflicting the Tories' worst ever defeat. The Liberal Democrats could win 38 seats and the Scottish National party 15, three for the Greens and three for Reform UK.
According to the projection, Nigel Farage is on track to overturn a huge Tory majority to win in Clacton while Jeremy Corbyn, standing as an independent, is predicted to lose to Labour in Islington North.
Labour has an implied vote share of 43%, the Conservatives on 25%, Reform UK on 12%, the Lib Dems on 10%, the Greens on 6%, the SNP on 3% and Plaid Cymru on 1%.
The projection, which represents a 15% swing away from the Tories since 2019, is likely to heighten fears among Tory candidates and officials that the party could face an "extinction-level event" unless it closes the gap.
However, it is also likely to embolden the Tory strategy of warning of a "super-majority" - which it argues would leave a Labour government unchecked and unaccountable - to try to win back some support.
Labour is still on course to win a substantial majority, reaching the 326 seats mark - even before taking into account those on a knife-edge.
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