Global efforts to slow a runaway climate catastrophe may have reached a critical milestone in the last year with the peak of global carbon emissions from energy use, experts say.
A growing number of climate analysts believe that 2023 may be recorded as the year in which annual emissions reached a pinnacle before the global fossil fuel economy began a terminal decline.
The milestone is considered a crucial point in the race to net zero emissions. But for many climate experts, it is an inflexion point that was due years ago and which, although encouraging, falls far short of the rapid reduction needed.
The world's leading climate scientists have consistently warned that the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere means it is critical emissions are driven down before 2030 to keep global heating to a maximum of 1.5C above pre-industrialised levels. The rate at which emissions would need to be reduced will require, most experts agree, global transformation on a scale not yet in the pipeline.
"We can celebrate this tipping point," said Dave Jones, a director at the climate thinktank Ember. "But in a way it's worrying that we are still talking about when emissions might peak. The reality is that we need deep and fast reductions in emissions if we hope to stay within the vanishingly small budget for carbon."
The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised hopes this year of an end to the fossil fuel era when it predicted for the first time that the consumption of oil, gas and coal would peak before 2030 and begin to fall as climate policies took effect.
"It's not a question of if, it's just a matter of how soon, and the sooner the better for all of us," said Fatih Birol, head of the IEA.
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