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But even though the polls suggest that is the likely outcome, he's not taking anything for granted.
"We're as ever trying not to get ahead of ourselves," he gently insists when asked if he has ever been inside the grace-and-favour flat above Downing Street (he hasn't, for the record).
"People talk about the inevitable outcome. It isn't inevitable. I think there's a yearning for change. But you know what we always say, if you want change, you have to vote for it." Starmer is sitting, shirt sleeves rolled up and steaming mug of black coffee in front of him, in a meeting room at the Royal Horticultural Halls in central London ahead of a rally marking the final weekend of the campaign.
We have been promised celebrity endorsements. He is tight-lipped, but laughs when asked if it might be Taylor Swift, after he was pictured at her Eras tour show at Wembley. It turns out to be Elton John.
The table is laden with plates of cakes and piles of teacups and saucers, which rattle when he bangs his fist for emphasis. In front of him is a lined notepad, which he scribbles on when he wants to illustrate a detailed point. Starmer is a details man.
Whether it is the former lawyer in him or the senior civil servant, he is fastidious about setting out the case for what he wants to do in government. He only entered politics a decade ago, and is suspicious of some of the conventions at Westminster.
"For four and a half years people have been saying to me go faster, go slower, look over there, deal with this. The only reason we're in the position we're in is because I knew where I needed to be, and that is my lodestar." When Starmer took over as Labour leader in 2020, the party had just suffered a historic election defeat to Boris Johnson's Conservatives. He set out his plan to transform his party, take the fight to the Tories and win an election.
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