In the dock Tories facing guilty verdict as reality hinders Hollywood ending

If the opinion polls are right, Jeremy Hunt is on the political equivalent of death row. Voters have passed judgment on the government and it is only a matter of time before the sentence is carried out.

- Larry Elliott

That's not the way the chancellor sees it. For a condemned man, he was remarkably cheerful as he did the rounds of the TV studios before Wednesday's autumn statement. His message was simple: things may look bleak for the government but all is not lost. There is too much negativity. The long-term prospects are "fantastic". Hunt is confident there will be an 11th-hour pardon from the British people.

He says the tough decisions on tax and spending taken a year ago are bearing fruit and that the public can be brought round gradually to the idea of a reprieve.

Miracles do happen. Hunt may be able to pull off his own version of 12 Angry Men, with himself as Henry Fonda, but the chances of a not guilty verdict for the government whenever the election comes are vanishingly small.

This is not the movies. There is no way back for the Tories without a marked improvement in the economy, and progress on that score is going to be slow at best. The autumn statement is unlikely to change voter perceptions.

In part, that is because the package will be modest, even though the chancellor appears to have more money to play with than expected a few weeks ago. The £4.5bn investment in strategically important manufacturing, for example, is spread over five years and in no way matches the ambition of Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act. That act provides genuine incentives for green businesses to invest in the US; Hunt's money will barely touch the sides on its way down.