Tusk took office as prime minister last December, ending eight years of rule by the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party. The change of government prompted celebrations from progressive Poles and relief in Brussels, where PiS had put Poland on a course of conflict with European bodies.
But the PiS-aligned Duda still had more than a year left on his term, and has been able to veto legislation. That turns next May's vote into essentially a referendum on whether Poles want ministers to be able to rule freely or not.
"We are still in an extended election cycle, and the presidential vote will be absolutely make or break for the government," said Wojciech Przybylski, of the Visegrad Insight thinktank in Warsaw. "Depending on the result, the government will be able to effectively govern and reform, or it won't," he added.
On Saturday, Tusk's Civic Coalition announced that the liberal mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, will be its candidate in next spring's vote after he won a primary inside the party against the current foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski.
"I have a very strong mandate and a lot of energy, determination and courage to beat PiS," Trzaskowski said on Saturday. He narrowly lost the last presidential election to Duda in 2020, though he faced a situation where many of the levers of state and the public media were stacked in Duda's favour. Poland remains deeply polarised, and next year's vote is also expected to be close-run.
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