'Just the beginning' After Wagner, Russia looks to increase its influence in Africa

On 3 May, as top US officials confirmed the presence of Russian security forces at the same airbase as American troops in Niger, a popular Telegram channel reportedly run by Moscow-based officials posted a message with an audio clip of the Soviet-era rock band Nautilus Pompilius's 1985 cult song Goodbye America.

- Eromo Egbejule

Two weeks later, last Thursday, US officials and Nigerien leaders agreed to a phased withdrawal of American forces from Niger that would take place as soon as feasible in the coming months.

The Telegram message served as a status update on recent developments: an exodus of western militaries from the Sahel twinned with expanding Russian influence.

Ikemesit Effiong, the head of research at SBM Intelligence, a Lagos-based consultancy firm that covers geopolitical risk, said: "Russia has effectively gained the upper hand in the geopolitical arms race in the Sahel and won committed, albeit fragile, allies in the region." 

West Africa, he said, was now divided into two: broadly pro-western coastal countries; and a more "Russophile" outlook in the landlocked states of the Sahel, the name given to a vast zone that stretches across the continent from the Atlantic to the Red Sea.

Moscow is keen to extend its sphere of influence on a global scale, find further export markets and access natural resources. Africa presents the perfect opportunity to execute those ideas, some observers say.

Influence is directed through an umbrella entity run by the Russian ministry of defence called Africa Corps, believed to be named after the German force in north Africa during the second world war.

It has incorporated the Wagner group, the controversial paramilitary company that was headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin before his death in a plane crash north of Moscow last August.

In the decade before his death, Prigozhin had forged relationships with the leadership of countries such as Mali, Libya, Central African Republic and others, supplying mercenaries to help them tackle insurgencies or provide personal protection for leaders. In return, Wagner got access to mines and infrastructure deals as well as political clout.