Population UK must embrace higher immigration or rethink the economy
The Guardian|February 05, 2024
Tough choices. We must be willing to make tough choices. It is a soundbite heard from politicians, often accompanied by another chestnut: there’s no such thing as a free lunch.
Larry Elliott
Population UK must embrace higher immigration or rethink the economy

Both statements are true. Free lunches are few and far between. There are tough choices that need to be made. But, like most other developed countries in similar circumstances, Britain is reluctant to make them.

Tough choices implies a willingness to make sacrifices and that doesn’t fit well with the west’s “I want it all now” culture. Politicians pander to this. They talk about the need to make tough choices but in fact look for the soft option, because that’s what keeps the punters happy.

The debate over immigration is a case in point. Migration is a hot topic here, as it is in Germany, France, the Netherlands and the US. What’s more, it is certain to remain a salient political issue.

Last week, the Office for National Statistics published its projections for the size of the UK’s population . These showed the number of people living in the UK rising to 70  million by 2026 – a decade earlier than previously envisaged – and continuing to increase over the following decade to 73.7 million. Net migration – the number of people entering the UK minus the number leaving – is expected to account for more than 90% of the 6.6 million increase in the population between 2021 and 2036.

Just to be clear, these are not ONS forecasts but rather projections based on net migration of 315,000 from 2028 onwards. This would be much lower than the record 672,000 in the year to June 2023, but significantly higher than in any previous period. When Tony Blair became prime minister in 1997, for example, net migration was 48,000. When David Cameron entered Downing Street in 2010 the figure stood at 256,000.

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