A surge in new oil and gas exploration in 2024 threatens to unleash nearly 12bn tonnes of planet-heating emissions, with the world's wealthiest countries such as the US and Britait leading a stampede despite climate commitments, data shared exclusively with the Guardian reveals.
The new oil and gas field licences forecast to be awarded across the world this year are on track to generate the highest level of emissions since those issued in 2018, as heatwaves, wildfires, drought and floods cause death and destruction globally, according to analysis of industry data by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).
The 11.9bn tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions - roughly the same as China's annual carbon pollution resulting over their lifetime from all current and forthcoming oil and gas fields forecast to be licensed by the end of 2024 would be greater than the past four years combined. The projection includes licences awarded as of June 2024, as well as the oil and gas blocks open for bidding, under evaluation or planned.
Meanwhile, fossil fuel firms are ploughing more money into developing new oil and gas sites than at any time since the 2015 Paris climate deal, when the world's governments agreed to take steps to cut emissions and curb global heating.
The world's richest countries are economically best placed - and obliged under the Paris accords - to lead the transition to cleaner energy sources. But these high-capacity countries with low economic dependence on fossil fuels are spearheading the drilling frenzy despite dwindling easy-to-reach reserves, handing out 825 new licences in 2023, the largest number since records began.
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